914 AXNT20 KNHC 011751 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1251 PM EST Sun Mar 1 2020 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1745 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... ...HEAVY RAINFALL POTENTIAL IN SOUTHERN CENTRAL AMERICA... Periods of heavy rainfall are expected today across the southern portions of central America, particularly eastern Costa Rica and northeastern Panama, in association with strong northerly onshore flow behind a slow moving front. Please monitor the latest forecasts from your local or national meteorological service for more details. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough passes through the coastal areas of Sierra Leone near 08N12W to 01S21W. The ITCZ begins from 01S21W to the coast of Brazil near 03S38W. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection is seen from 00N-03N between 15W-18W along the monsoon trough and isolated moderate convection elsewhere. Scattered moderate convection is present on either side of the ITCZ from 07S-02N and west of 19W. GULF OF MEXICO... A surface ridge prevails across the basin, anchored by a 1026 mb high pressure centered near 28N83W. Broad surface anticyclonic wind flow spans across the Gulf of Mexico. Scatterometer data and surface observations depict moderate to fresh southeasterly winds west of 89W. Moderate northeasterly winds prevail across the eastern Gulf. Seas are 6 to 7 ft in the western Gulf and 3 to 4 ft in the eastern Gulf. Lower level water vapor also show high clouds streaming across Texas and making it into the northern Gulf of Mexico. No significant convection is noted in the area. High pressure ridge will extend WSW across the Gulf through Wed before retreating E in response to the next cold front. The front will reach the Texas coast Wed, then pass to the E of the Gulf by Fri morning. Strong SE to S winds developing ahead of the front will affect most of the Gulf Tue night. Strong winds W of the front will mainly affect the western Gulf Thu night. CARIBBEAN SEA... A stationary front extends from central Hispaniola near 18N72W to the coast of Nicaragua near 11N83W. Cloudiness and scattered showers are noted along and west of the front. A pre-frontal trough is noted east of Puerto Rico from 21N63W to 16N66W. Scattered light showers are moving across the Lesser Antilles westward into Puerto Rico. The latest scatterometer data and surface observations depict near gale force winds off the south- central coast of Cuba, and fresh to strong NE winds along the Windward Passage ahead of the stationary front north of 78W. Fresh to strong to near gale force winds are north of Colombia with moderate easterly trades across the central Caribbean. Light to gentle winds are in the eastern basin. Seas are up to 10 ft behind the cold front in the NW Caribbean, up to 9 ft north of Colombia, and 3 to 6 ft in the eastern and central basin. The stationary front extending from SE Haiti will dissipate tonight. Fresh to strong N to NE winds across the northwestern Caribbean, including lee of Cuba and Windward Passage, will diminish Tue as high pres over the western Atlc shifts E. Fresh to strong SE winds will develop Tue over the far western Caribbean, including the Yucatan Channel and Gulf of Honduras, and continue through early Thu as a Gulf of Mexico cold front approaches the Yucatan Channel. The front is expected to reach the far NW Caribbean by Thu night. Strong to near gale force winds will continue along and near the coast of Colombia through Thu night. ATLANTIC OCEAN... A slow moving cold front extends from 30N56W to 28N58W, then stalls to northern Hispaniola near 19N70W. To the west, a reinforcing cold front extends from 31N69W to 30N76W. The latest scatterometer data depicts strong to near gale force northwesterly winds north of 30N behind the first front near 56W. Surface ridging prevails across the remainder of the basin, anchored by a 1025 mb high centered near 29N22W. A pair of surface troughs were analyzed from 30N35W to 21N38W, and from 20N33W to 13N36W. Scattered showers are noted along the second trough. The stationary front will dissipate by early Tue. High pressure will head ENE from the far NE Gulf of Mexico to just N of Bermuda by Tue night. The next cold front will enter the far NW forecast waters Thu night. Strong SW winds preceding the front will affect the waters N of the Bahamas Thu. $$ MMTorres