000 AXNT20 KNHC 011140 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 640 AM EST Sun Mar 1 2020 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1120 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... ...HEAVY RAINFALL POTENTIAL IN SOUTHERN CENTRAL AMERICA... Periods of heavy rainfall are expected today across the southern portions of central America, particularly eastern Costa Rica and northeastern Panama, in association with strong northerly onshore flow behind a slow moving front. Please monitor the latest forecasts from your local or national meteorological service for more details. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough passes through the coastal areas of Sierra Leone near 09N13W to 05N16W to 01N20W. The ITCZ begins from 01N20W to 01S28W to the coast of Brazil near 05S37W. Scattered moderate convection is seen on either side of the ITCZ and monsoon trough from 06S- 03N and west of 14W. An area of scattered moderate convection is south of the monsoon trough from 01S-05N between 06W-12W. GULF OF MEXICO... A surface ridge prevails across the basin, anchored by a 1026 mb high pressure centered near 28N83W. Broad surface anticyclonic wind flow spans across the Gulf of Mexico. The latest scatterometer data and surface observations depict moderate to fresh northeasterly winds over the eastern Gulf, mainly east of 85W. Fresh to strong southeasterly winds prevail across the western Gulf. Seas are 5 to 7 ft in the western Gulf and 1 to 4 ft in the eastern Gulf. High pressure will remain across the Gulf through middle of the upcoming week before retreating eastward in response to a cold front that will reach eastern Texas. This front is expected to reach the Texas coast late Tue night, then move across the NW Gulf Wed. It will move across the remainder of the Gulf to southeast of the area on Fri. Fresh to strong winds are expected on either side of this front. CARIBBEAN SEA... A stationary front extends from central Hispaniola near 18N73W to 15N78W to the coast of Nicaragua near 12N84W. Cloudiness and scattered showers are noted along and west of the front. A pre- frontal trough is noted over Puerto Rico from 22N64W to 16N68W. Scattered light showers are moving across the Lesser Antilles westward into Puerto Rico. The latest scatterometer data and surface observations depict near gale force winds off the south- central coast of Cuba, with strong northeasterly winds behind the cold front with moderate winds ahead of the boundary. Strong to near gale force winds are also noted in the Windward Passage. Strong to near gale force winds are north of Colombia with strong winds in the central Caribbean. Light to gentle winds are in the eastern basin. Seas are up to 10 ft behind the cold front in the NW Caribbean, up to 9 ft north of Colombia, and 3 to 6 ft in the eastern and central basin. The stationary front will gradually dissipate through this afternoon. Fresh to strong north to northeast winds across the northwestern Caribbean will diminish Tue. Fresh to strong southeast winds will develop Tue over the far western Caribbean, including the Yucatan Channel and Gulf of Honduras, and continue through early Thu as a cold front approaches the Yucatan Channel. This front is expected to reach the far northwestern Caribbean by Thu night. Strong to near gale force winds will continue along and near the coast of Colombia through the period. ATLANTIC OCEAN... A stationary cold front extends from 31N58W to 25N64W to northern Hispaniola near 20N71W. To the west, a reinforcing cold front extends from 31N63W to 26N71W. The latest scatterometer data depicts strong to near gale force northwesterly winds west of the reinforcing front with seas up to 12 ft. Fresh to strong northerly winds are noted west of the primary cold front and seas are up to 7 ft. Surface ridging prevails across the remainder of the basin, anchored by a 1025 mb high centered near 31N25W. A pair of surface troughs were analyzed from 30N36W to 22N39W, and from 19N34W to 13N36W. Scattered showers are noted along the second trough. The stationary will dissipate by early Tue. A cold front over the northeastern forecast waters will move east of the area by early this afternoon. Fresh to strong west to northwest winds behind this front N of 27N will shift east of the forecast waters tonight. High pressure across the area will shift to north of 31N by late Mon night as a cold front moves across the southeastern U.S. This front will move over the far northwest forecast waters early Wed and become stationary before it pushes eastward again as a cold front later on Wed. By Thu night, it will reach from near 31N78W to NE Florida by Thu night. Strong to near gale force southerly winds are expected ahead of this front, while fresh to strong west to northwest winds are expected behind it. $$ AKR