000 AXNT20 KNHC 010541 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1241 AM EST Sun Mar 1 2020 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0520 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... ...HEAVY RAINFALL POTENTIAL IN HONDURAS... Periods of heavy rainfall are expected through tonight across northern Honduras in association with strong northerly onshore flow behind a slowly-moving cold front. Please monitor the latest forecasts from your local or national meteorological service for more details. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough passes through the coastal areas of Guinea near 09N14W to 04N18W to 01N24W. The ITCZ begins from 01N24W to 00N33W to the coast of Brazil near 03S40W. Scattered moderate convection is seen on either side of the ITCZ and monsoon trough from 05S-02N between 17W-37W. An area of strong convection is south of the monsoon trough from 00N-02N between 06W-17W. GULF OF MEXICO... A surface ridge prevails across the basin, anchored by a 1027 mb high pressure centered near 28N87W. Broad surface anticyclonic wind flow spans across the Gulf of Mexico. ASCAT data depicts moderate to fresh northerly wind over the eastern Gulf mainly east of 85W. Fresh to strong southeasterly winds prevail across the western Gulf. Seas are 3 to 6 ft in the western Gulf and 1 to 5 ft in the eastern Gulf. High pres will prevail across the Gulf through midweek before retreating eastward. This will enable to next cold front to move into the NW Gulf Wed. The front will shift across the Gulf, moving SE of the area Fri. CARIBBEAN SEA... A slowly-moving cold front extends from central Hispaniola near 18N72W to 15N77W to the coast of Nicaragua near 12N84W. Cloudiness and scattered showers are noted along and west of the front. Scattered light showers are moving across the Lesser Antilles westward into Puerto Rico. Scatterometer data depicts near gale force winds off the south- central coast of Cuba, with strong northeasterly winds behind the cold front with moderate winds ahead of the boundary. Strong winds are also noted in the Windward Passage. Strong to near gale force winds are north of Colombia with strong winds in the central Caribbean. Light to gentle winds are in the eastern basin. Seas are up to 10 ft behind the cold front in the NW Caribbean, with 3 to 6 ft in the eastern and central basin. The cold front will stall and dissipate from the Hispaniola to Costa Rica by Sun. Fresh to strong N to NE winds will prevail NW of the front through Sun, including the Windward Passage. Strong winds will continue along the coast of Colombia through mid-week. ATLANTIC OCEAN... A slowly-moving cold front extends from 31N58W to 25N65W to northern Hispaniola near 20N71W. To the west, a reinforcing frontal boundary extends from 31N66W to 26N73W. Scatterometer data depicts strong to near gale force northwesterly winds west of the reinforcing front with seas up to 12 ft. Fresh to strong northerly winds are noted west of the primary cold front and seas are up to 7 ft. Surface ridge prevails across the remainder of the basin, anchored by a 1026 mb high centered near 32N39W. A pair of surface troughs were analyzed from 29N36W to 23N36W, and from 21N30W to 13N33W. Scattered showers are noted along the second trough. The primary cold front will stall from 22N59W to the Mona passage by Sun night, then dissipate by Tue. High pres following in the wake of the front will prevail across the region until midweek, when the next cold front approaches the SE coast of the United States. $$ AKR