025 AXNT20 KNHC 291800 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 100 PM EST Sat Feb 29 2020 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1745 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... ...HEAVY RAINFALL POTENTIAL IN HONDURAS... Periods of heavy rainfall are expected through tonight, across northern Honduras, in association with strong northerly onshore flow behind a slowly-moving cold front. It is possible that persistent heavy rainfall may lead to flash floods and mudslides. Please monitor the latest forecasts from your local or national meteorological service. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough passes through the coastal areas of Liberia near 05N10W to 01N22W. The ITCZ begins from 01N22W to 01N36W to the coast of Brazil near 00N47W. Scattered moderate convection is seen north of the monsoon trough from 02N-05N between 11W-22W. Along the ITCZ, scattered showers are present extend about 100 to 180 nm on either side of the boundary. GULF OF MEXICO... A 1029 mb high pressure center is near 28N88W. The broad surface anticyclonic wind flow spans across the Gulf of Mexico and remains in control of the basin. ASCAT data shows moderate to strong north wind in the eastern Gulf coast from 25N-28N between 81W to 85W. High pressure centered just SE of the Mouth of the Mississippi will move ENE to near Bermuda by Mon evening. The next cold front will enter the NW Gulf early Wed, then rapidly cross the Gulf Wed. Gale conditions are possible west of the front along the coasts of Veracruz and Tampico Wed. CARIBBEAN SEA... A slowly-moving cold front passes through the Atlantic Ocean into the Caribbean Sea near 19N73W across Jamaica to 16N80W to the coast of Nicaragua near 14N83W. Broken to overcast multilayered cloud deck cover most of the area south of 20N and west of 80W to the Gulf of Honduras. Scattered showers continue to impact the region from eastern Cuba, the Mona Passage into Haiti, south into Jamaica and the Cayman Islands, and in Central America from Belize, Honduras and Nicaragua. ASCAT data indicate northerly moderate to fresh winds are present behind the front, from 22N to 14N between 80W to 85W. A cold front extending from NW Haiti to NE Nicaragua is slowing down as it moves E. The front will stall and dissipate from the Dominican Republic to Costa Rica Sun. Fresh to strong N to NE winds will prevail NW of the front through Sun, including the Windward Passage. Strong winds will continue along the coast of Colombia through mid-week. ATLANTIC OCEAN... A slowly-moving cold front starts at 31N59W to north of Haiti near 19N72W and continues into the Caribbean Sea. A broad area of scattered moderate showers extend from Haiti to eastern Cuba between 64W-69W. A secondary front enters the forecast area in the western Atlantic from 30N76W to 29N79W. Scattered moderate convection is seen 180 nm ahead of the front. ASCAT data shows strong northwest wind behind the front covering the from 27N-31N between 74W-80W. A gale is currently in effect for portions north of the region. An upper level cyclonic circulation center is near 22N33W. A trough is visible at the surface from 28N32W to 21N38W. At about 360 nm east of surface trough, an area of weak surface trough is seen extending from 21N28W to 13N36W. Scattered showers and tstorms are seen from 13N to 22N between the 27W-32W. The cold front near 31N59W to Haiti will stall from 22N59W to Puerto Rico Sun night, then dissipate by Tue. High pres following in the wake of the front will prevail across the region until midweek, when the next cold front approaches the SE coast of the United States. $$ MMTorres