000 AXNT20 KNHC 291204 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 704 AM EST Sat Feb 29 2020 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1100 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... ...HEAVY RAINFALL POTENTIAL IN HONDURAS... Periods of heavy rainfall are expected through tonight, across northern Honduras, in association with strong northerly onshore flow behind a slowly-moving cold front. It is possible that persistent heavy rainfall may lead to flash floods and mudslides. Please monitor the latest forecasts from your local or national meteorological service. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough passes through the coastal areas of Guinea near 10N14W, to 10N17W, curving to 05N29W. A surface trough is along 31W/32W from 06N southward. Precipitation: widely scattered moderate to isolated strong within 120 nm on either side of the line that runs from 07N37W to 02N45W to Brazil near 02S49W, and from 04N southward between 18W and 25W. Some of the precipitation is related to speed convergence, and a small amount of low level cyclonic wind flow. Scattered moderate to strong is from 03N to 05N between 05W and 07W. Isolated moderate elsewhere from 08N southward from 60W eastward. GULF OF MEXICO... Broad upper level anticyclonic wind flow covers the area that is to the north of 22N. A 1029 mb high pressure center is near 26N95W. One ridge extends from the high center to Florida near 28N79W, and to the Atlantic Ocean near 25N71W. Broad surface anticyclonic wind flow spans the Gulf of Mexico. A weak frontal trough will move across the NE Gulf of Mexico this morning. High pressure will prevail across the region, elsewhere, through Tuesday. The next cold front will move into the NW Gulf of Mexico early on Wednesday. The front will shift rapidly across the Gulf on Wednesday. Gale-force wind conditions are possible, to the west of the front, off the coast of Veracruz and Tampico, in Mexico, on Wednesday. CARIBBEAN SEA... A slowly-moving cold front passes through the Atlantic Ocean, to 22N70W, across the Turks Islands, through the Windward Passage, across Jamaica, into NE Nicaragua. Precipitation: broken to overcast multilayered clouds and possible rainshowers are to the west of the line that runs from the Mona Passage to the coast of Panama along 80W. Broken to overcast low level and middle level clouds and possible rainshowers are in the Atlantic Ocean and in the Caribbean Sea from 10N to 23N between 47W and 70W. 24-hour rainfall totals that are listed for the period that ended at 29/0000 UTC, according to the PAN AMERICAN TEMPERATURE AND PRECIPITATION TABLES, MIATPTPAN/SXCA01 KNHC, are: 0.04 in Guadeloupe. The current cold front will continue to move eastward. The front will stall and dissipate from the Dominican Republic to Costa Rica on Sunday. Fresh to strong N to NE winds will prevail NW of the front through Sunday, including in the Windward Passage. Fresh to strong winds are expected near the coast of Colombia each night through the middle of the upcoming week. ATLANTIC OCEAN... A slowly-moving cold front starts at 31N62W, to 26N66W, to 22N70W, across the Turks Islands, through the Windward Passage, across Jamaica, into NE Nicaragua. Precipitation: Broken to overcast multilayered clouds and possible rainshowers are to the west of the line that runs from 32N55W, to the northern coast of Hispaniola that is along 70W. 24-hour rainfall totals that are listed for the period that ended at 29/0000 UTC, according to the PAN AMERICAN TEMPERATURE AND PRECIPITATION TABLES, MIATPTPAN/SXCA01 KNHC, are: 0.17 in Bermuda. Broken to overcast low level and middle level clouds and possible rainshowers are in the Atlantic Ocean and in the Caribbean Sea from 10N to 23N between 47W and 70W. An upper level cyclonic circulation center is near 23N35W. A trough extends from the cyclonic center to 10N47W. Comparatively drier air in subsidence is apparent in water vapor imagery, from 400 nm to 1000 nm to the SW of the upper level cyclonic center. A surface trough is along 32W/33W from 20N to 30N. Broken to overcast multilayered clouds and possible rainshowers are from 10N to 30N between the Canary Islands and 40W. The current cold front will stall in the SE part of the forecast area on Sunday, where it will dissipate through Monday. High pressure will build in the wake of the front, and prevail through midweek, when the next cold front approaches the SE coast of the United States. $$ MT