000 AXNT20 KNHC 282312 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 612 PM EST Fri Feb 28 2020 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 2300 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... ...HEAVY RAINFALL POTENTIAL IN HONDURAS... Periods of heavy rainfall are expected through Saturday night across northern Honduras in association with strong northerly onshore flow behind a slow moving cold front. Persistent heavy rainfall could lead to flash floods and mudslides. Please monitor the latest forecasts from your local or national meteorological service. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough extends from the coast of Liberia near 06N11W to 03N18W. The ITCZ continues from 03N18W to 00N29W to the coast of Brazil near 03S43W. Isolated moderate convection is S of the monsoon trough from 03N-06N between 05W-10W. Scattered moderate convection is S of the ITCZ from 04S-07S between 24W-29W. Isolated moderate convection is along the coast of Brazil from 00N-05S between 36W-50W. GULF OF MEXICO... As of 28/2100 UTC, a 1029 mb high is centered over the NW Gulf of Mexico near 26N95W. 10-20 kt anticyclonic winds are over the Gulf with strongest winds over the eastern Bay of Campeche, and weakest winds in the vicinity of the High. Broken to overcast low clouds are over the western Bay of Campeche. The remainder of the Gulf has fair weather. In the upper levels, zonal flow with strong subsidence is noted. A weak frontal boundary will move across the NE Gulf tonight. Otherwise, high pressure will prevail across the region through Tue. The next cold front will move into the NW Gulf by Tue night, and rapidly shift across the Gulf Wed. Gale conditions are possible west of the front off the coast of Veracruz and Tampico Tue night and Wed. CARIBBEAN SEA... The tail end of a slow moving cold front extends from E Cuba near 20N74W to E Honduras near 15N84W. Behind the front, the weather conditions consist of 20-25 kt northerly winds, cooler air, and low-level clouds with possible showers. Seas are up to 9 ft over the northwestern Caribbean waters. East of the front, conditions are much more tranquil with light to moderate trades and only patches of low-level clouds. The highest seas and winds are in the usual location near the coast of Colombia. The cold front will continue moving east, then stall and dissipate from Hispaniola to Costa Rica this weekend. Fresh to strong N to NE winds will prevail NW of the front through Sun, including the Windward Passage. Fresh to strong winds are also expected near the coast of Colombia each night through mid-week. ATLANTIC OCEAN... As of 28/2100 UTC, a 1015 mb low is over the W Atlantic near 30N66W. A cold front extends S from the low to 24N70W to E Cuba near 20N74W. Scattered showers are within 90 nm of the front. A surface trough is N of the Virgin Islands from 22N63W to 18N65W. Scattered showers are within 90 nm of the trough. A 1016 mb low is centered over the E Atlantic near 25N33W. Of note in the upper levels, an upper level low is centered over the E Atlantic near 23N36W. Upper level diffluence E of the center is producing scattered showers approaching the Canary Islands. The cold front will continue to move eastward across the Atlantic through Mon night, then stall and weaken Tue. High pressure will build in the wake of the front and prevail through midweek, when the next cold front approaches the SE coast of the United States. $$ Formosa