000 AXNT20 KNHC 281719 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1219 PM EST Fri Feb 28 2020 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1700 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... ...HEAVY RAINFALL POTENTIAL IN HONDURAS... Periods of heavy rainfall are expected through Saturday night across northern Honduras in association with strong northerly onshore flow behind a slow moving cold front. Persistent heavy rainfall could lead to flash floods and mudslides. Please monitor the latest forecasts from your local or national meteorological service. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough extends from the coast of Liberia near 07N11W to 04N17W. The ITCZ continues from 04N17W to 00N29W to the coast of Brazil near 02S44W. Scattered moderate and embedded isolated strong convection is occurring from the equator to 4N between 25W and 30W. GULF OF MEXICO... Generally fair weather exists across the Gulf of Mexico today supported by a 1031 mb high pressure system over the northwestern waters and abundant dry air in the mid- and upper-levels of the atmosphere. Surface winds are mostly out of the northwest or north, and are strongest (15-20 kt) over the southeastern waters. Winds are much lighter and variable closer to the high. The highest seas, up to 7 ft., are over the southeastern waters. High pressure centered near the Texas coast will shift eastward through Sun. Winds and seas will continue to diminish across the area today. A weak frontal boundary will move across the NE Gulf tonight with fresh NW winds. Southerly return flow will increase over much of the Gulf early next week. The next cold front will move into the NW Gulf by Tue night. CARIBBEAN SEA... The tail end of a strong cold front for this time of year extends from eastern Cuba to east-central Honduras. Behind the front, the weather conditions consist of strong northerly winds, cooler waters, and low-level clouds with possible showers. Seas are up to 9 ft. over the northwestern Caribbean waters. East of the front, conditions are much more tranquil with light to moderate trades and only patches of low-level clouds. The highest seas and winds are in the usual location near the coast of Colombia. The cold front will continue moving east, then stall and dissipate from Hispaniola to Costa Rica this weekend. Fresh to strong N to NE winds will prevail NW of the front through Sun, including the Windward Passage. Fresh to strong winds are also expected near the coast of Colombia each night through mid-week. ATLANTIC OCEAN... A strong cold front enters the discussion area near 32N62W and extends south-southwestward across the southeastern Bahamas to eastern Cuba. Moderate northwesterly flow and scattered showers are widespread beind the front. Farther east over the eastern and central Atlantic, surface ridging dominates the area. There are a few surface troughs pertubing the ridge, but the only noteworthy one is over the eastern Atlantic along 32W-33W from 21N to 31N. This feature and its parent mid- to upper-level low is producing scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms from 18N to 29N between 25W and 31W. The cold front will continue to move eastward across the Atlantic through Mon night, then stall and weaken Tue. Fresh to strong W to NW winds and seas to 10 ft are expected in the vicinity of the frontal boundary through Mon. Winds will pick up again by late Mon as pressure gradient intensifies across the area. $$ Cangialosi