000 AXNT20 KNHC 281051 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 551 AM EST Fri Feb 28 2020 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1030 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... ...HEAVY RAINFALL POTENTIAL IN HONDURAS... Periods of heavy rainfall are expected through Saturday night across northern Honduras in association with a cold front. Persistent heavy rainfall could lead to flash floods and mudslides. Please monitor the latest forecasts from your local or national meteorological service. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough extends from the coast of Liberia near 07N11W to 04N17W. The ITCZ continues from 04N17W to 00N28W to the coast of Brazil near 04S38W. Scattered moderate with embedded isolated strong convection is from 07S-04N between 22W-35W. Isolated moderate convection is from 04S-00N between 35W-45W. GULF OF MEXICO... A 1029 mb surface high is centered off the Texas coast near 27N95W. The latest set of ASCAT passes from late Thursday evening indicated gentle and moderate winds over most of the northern and central Gulf of Mexico. Fresh northerlies occupied southern areas from the Florida Straits to the Yucatan Channel and to the eastern Bay of Campeche. Tranquil conditions will prevail today in the Gulf of Mexico. The high pressure centered near the Texas coast will shift eastward through Sun. A surface trough or weak cold front will move across the NE Gulf tonight, with fresh NW winds. Strong southerly return flow will develop over much of the Gulf early next week. A cold front will then move into the NW Gulf Tue night. CARIBBEAN SEA... A cold front extends from E Cuba near 21N76W to 18.5N82W to eastern Honduras near 15N85W. Scattered showers are over portions of the northwestern Caribbean Sea along and north of the front, including the Gulf of Honduras and northern Honduras. The latest ASCAT pass from late Thursday evening showed strong N winds to the NW of the front, covering the NW Caribbean, west of a line from 22N80W to 16N85.5W. A surface trough is along 80W from 12N-17N with scattered showers along the axis. Drier air is over the eastern and central Caribbean due to mid-level ridging over the area. Gentle to moderate trades prevail there, except for strong near the coast of N Colombia. The cold front extending across the NW Caribbean will shift eastward, then stall and dissipate from Hispaniola to Costa Rica this weekend. Fresh to strong N to NE winds will prevail NW of the front through Sun, including the Windward Passage. Strong winds are expected near the coast of Colombia each night through early Wed. ATLANTIC OCEAN... A cold front extends from Bermuda to 27N70W to the Bahamas near 22N74W to E Cuba near 21N76W. Scattered showers are possible within 90 nm of the front. A pair of 1022 mb highs are centered over the central Atlantic near 30N52W and 32N47W, respectively. A surface trough is along 31/32W from 19N-30N. A nearby upper-level low near 25N35W is oriented along a NE-SW upper-level trough axis. The upper trough and surface trough are enhancing scattered moderate convection within 120 nm either side of a line extending from 15N34W to 22N29W to 29N26W. The cold front from near Bermuda to eastern Cuba will move eastward across the Atlantic through Mon night, then stall and weaken Tue. Fresh to strong W to NW winds and seas to 11 ft are expected west of the frontal boundary through Mon, with improving conditions expected by early next week. $$ Hagen