000 AXNT20 KNHC 262019 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion...UPDATED NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 330 PM EST Wed Feb 26 2020 ...Updating Special Features Section... Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1800 UTC. ...GULF OF MEXICO STORM WARNING... A very strong cold front is currently moving across the Gulf of Mexico. As of 1800 UTC, the front extends from the Florida Big Bend to the central Bay of Campeche. Recent scatterometer data indicate strong gale force winds behind the cold front while Tampico and Veracruz, located along the mexican coast, are reporting sustained winds of 35 kt with gusts to 45 kt. Storm conditions will develop offshore Veracruz this afternoon and evening. The front is forecast to reach from Ft Myers, FL to the Yucatan Peninsula this evening with a large area of gale force winds behind it, and seas of 15 to 18 ft over the SW Gulf. The front will move SE of the area tonight. High pressure will build in the wake of the front across the Gulf waters with winds and seas gradually diminishing of Thu. Please read the latest High Seas Forecast issued by the National Hurricane Center under AWIPS/WMO headers MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC or at website https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml for further details. ...HEAVY RAINFALL POTENTIAL IN NORTHERN HONDURAS... The strong cold front now moving across the Gulf of Mexico is forecast to enter the NW Caribbean tonight. Heavy rainfall will likely affect northern Honduras and NE Nicaragua Thursday through Saturday in association with the frontal boundary. The heavy rain in Honduras could lead to significant flash flooding and mudslides. A period of locally heavy rain is also likely this afternoon through Thursday in north-central Guatemala and over the southeastern portions of the Mexican state of Veracruz and northern Chiapas. However, the greatest threat for flooding is over northern Honduras where persistent northerly flow will bring abundant moisture. Please monitor the latest forecasts from your local or national meteorological service. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough passes through the Prime Meridian along 05N, to 04N23W. The ITCZ continues from 04N23W, to 01N37W. Precipitation: scattered to numerous strong from 02N to the Equator between 34W and 40W. Widely scattered moderate to isolated strong is elsewhere from 06N southward between 16W and 50W. Isolated moderate is to the south of the monsoon trough between 08W and 15W. GULF OF MEXICO... A weakening and slowly-moving cold front passes through the Florida Big Bend, into the central Gulf of Mexico, and the west central Gulf. A second and comparatively stronger cold front is about 220 nm to the west of the slowly-moving cold front. Please read the SPECIAL FEATURES section, in order to be aware of the gale-force and storm-force wind conditions that are in the forecast. Precipitation: Broken to overcast multilayered clouds and possible rainshowers are to the NW of the line that runs from the west central coast of Florida, along 27N, to the NW corner of the Yucatan Peninsula. The second and stronger cold front will catch up to and merge with the slowly-moving and weakening cold front, today. The combined/merged frontal boundary will race SE, and through and out of the Gulf of Mexico by late this evening. High pressure will dive S and settle into the area through the end of the week. Gale-force winds are developing behind the strong cold front, off the TX coast. The gale-force winds will envelop most of the W Gulf of Mexico today. Storm conditions will develop offshore Veracruz Mexico this afternoon and evening. Gale wind conditions will prevail in the broader SW Gulf through tonight, before N winds diminish to strong on Thursday. It is likely that another cold front may move into the NE Gulf of Mexico on Friday night or early on Saturday. CARIBBEAN SEA... An upper level ridge is in Central America. It is pushing upper level westerly wind across the Caribbean Sea. Precipitation: Broken to overcast multilayered clouds and possible rainshowers are in the Caribbean Sea, nearly everywhere, except from 84W westward. 24-hour rainfall totals that are listed for the period that ended at 26/0000 UTC, according to the PAN AMERICAN TEMPERATURE AND PRECIPITATION TABLES, MIATPTPAN/SXCA01 KNHC, are: 0.09 in Guadeloupe. High pressure north and east of the Caribbean Sea, in combination with low pressure in South America, will maintain strong northeast to east winds pulsing each night through the weekend off the coast of Colombian. A cold front will move into the NW Caribbean Sea this evening. The front will move southeastward, to a position from eastern Cuba to eastern Honduras by Thursday evening. The front will become stationary, during the weekend, from Hispaniola to Costa Rica. Fresh to strong N winds are expected in the wake of this wake of this front, across the Caribbean Sea, during the weekend. ATLANTIC OCEAN... A slowly-moving cold front passes through 32N44W, to 25N50W, to 20N56W. Precipitation: widely scattered moderate to isolated strong is within 120 nm to the SE of the cold front, from 25N northward. Broken to overcast multilayered clouds and possible rainshowers are elsewhere from 13N northward between 40W and 60W. A surface trough is along 32W/33W from 09N to 28N. The trough replaces the low pressure center from 18 hours to 24 hours ago. An upper level cyclonic circulation center is near 28N33W. Comparatively drier air in subsidence is within 700 nm to 800 nm of the upper level cyclonic center in the S semicircle. Precipitation: rainshowers are possible from 09N northward between 30W and 40W. Strong SW winds are expected NE of the Bahamas today and tonight, in advance of a cold front that will move off the SE U.S.A this afternoon. Strong NW wind is expected N of the Bahamas through Thursday, behind this front. The front will move E of Bermuda and the Bahamas and into E Cuba by Thursday evening. The cold front will slow down as it moves E of the Turks and Caicos Islands and into Hispaniola into the weekend. It is likely that a reinforcing cold front may bring strong NW winds to the areas that are to the north of 25N during the upcoming weekend. $$ mt/GR