000 AXNT20 KNHC 261159 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 705 AM EST Wed Feb 26 2020 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1140 UTC. ...GULF OF MEXICO GALE WARNING... A cold front is along 30N91W 24N98W. Expect N gale-force winds, and sea heights less than 8 feet, from 26N to 28N between 95W and 97W. A second and stronger cold front will catch up to the first front. The two fronts will merge, and form one front, that is forecast to be along 31N84W 19N98W on Wednesday afternoon. Expect NW-to-N gale-force to storm-force wind speeds, and sea heights ranging from 9 feet to 13 feet will be present from 19N to 20N between 95W and 96W, and including within 60 nm of Veracruz in Mexico. Strong gale-force winds, and sea heights ranging from 12 feet to 17 feet, will be from 18N to 25N between 88W and 96W, including within 60 nm of Veracruz in Mexico and within 60 nm of Campeche. Please read the latest HIGH SEAS FORECAST: MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC, the latest OFFSHORE FORECAST: MIAOFFNT4/FZNT24 KNHC, or go to the website https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml, from the NWS National Hurricane Center, for more details. ...HEAVY RAINFALL POTENTIAL IN NORTHERN HONDURAS... It is likely that heavy rainfall may affect northwestern and north central sections of Honduras, from Thursday through Saturday, behind a strong cold front. It is possible that the heavy rain in Honduras may lead to significant flash floods and mudslides. A period of heavy rain is likely, also, from Wednesday afternoon through Thursday, in central Guatemala and in the southeastern parts of the Mexican state of Veracruz and in northern Chiapas. Some localized flooding is possible in SE Mexico and in Guatemala. The greatest threat for flooding is in northern Honduras. Please monitor the latest forecasts from your local or national meteorological service. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough passes through the Prime Meridian along 05N, to 04N23W. The ITCZ continues from 04N23W, to 01N37W. Precipitation: scattered to numerous strong from 02N to the Equator between 34W and 40W. Widely scattered moderate to isolated strong is elsewhere from 06N southward between 16W and 50W. Isolated moderate is to the south of the monsoon trough between 08W and 15W. GULF OF MEXICO... A weakening and slowly-moving cold front passes through the Florida Big Bend, into the central Gulf of Mexico, and the west central Gulf. A second and comparatively stronger cold front is about 220 nm to the west of the slowly-moving cold front. Please read the SPECIAL FEATURES section, in order to be aware of the gale-force and storm-force wind conditions that are in the forecast. Precipitation: Broken to overcast multilayered clouds and possible rainshowers are to the NW of the line that runs from the west central coast of Florida, along 27N, to the NW corner of the Yucatan Peninsula. The second and stronger cold front will catch up to and merge with the slowly-moving and weakening cold front, today. The combined/merged frontal boundary will race SE, and through and out of the Gulf of Mexico by late this evening. High pressure will dive S and settle into the area through the end of the week. Gale-force winds are developing behind the strong cold front, off the TX coast. The gale-force winds will envelop most of the W Gulf of Mexico today. Storm conditions will develop offshore Veracruz Mexico this afternoon and evening. Gale wind conditions will prevail in the broader SW Gulf through tonight, before N winds diminish to strong on Thursday. It is likely that another cold front may move into the NE Gulf of Mexico on Friday night or early on Saturday. CARIBBEAN SEA... An upper level ridge is in Central America. It is pushing upper level westerly wind across the Caribbean Sea. Precipitation: Broken to overcast multilayered clouds and possible rainshowers are in the Caribbean Sea, nearly everywhere, except from 84W westward. 24-hour rainfall totals that are listed for the period that ended at 26/0000 UTC, according to the PAN AMERICAN TEMPERATURE AND PRECIPITATION TABLES, MIATPTPAN/SXCA01 KNHC, are: 0.09 in Guadeloupe. High pressure north and east of the Caribbean Sea, in combination with low pressure in South America, will maintain strong northeast to east winds pulsing each night through the weekend off the coast of Colombian. A cold front will move into the NW Caribbean Sea this evening. The front will move southeastward, to a position from eastern Cuba to eastern Honduras by Thursday evening. The front will become stationary, during the weekend, from Hispaniola to Costa Rica. Fresh to strong N winds are expected in the wake of this wake of this front, across the Caribbean Sea, during the weekend. ATLANTIC OCEAN... A slowly-moving cold front passes through 32N44W, to 25N50W, to 20N56W. Precipitation: widely scattered moderate to isolated strong is within 120 nm to the SE of the cold front, from 25N northward. Broken to overcast multilayered clouds and possible rainshowers are elsewhere from 13N northward between 40W and 60W. A surface trough is along 32W/33W from 09N to 28N. The trough replaces the low pressure center from 18 hours to 24 hours ago. An upper level cyclonic circulation center is near 28N33W. Comparatively drier air in subsidence is within 700 nm to 800 nm of the upper level cyclonic center in the S semicircle. Precipitation: rainshowers are possible from 09N northward between 30W and 40W. Strong SW winds are expected NE of the Bahamas today and tonight, in advance of a cold front that will move off the SE U.S.A this afternoon. Strong NW wind is expected N of the Bahamas through Thursday, behind this front. The front will move E of Bermuda and the Bahamas and into E Cuba by Thursday evening. The cold front will slow down as it moves E of the Turks and Caicos Islands and into Hispaniola into the weekend. It is likely that a reinforcing cold front may bring strong NW winds to the areas that are to the north of 25N during the upcoming weekend. $$ mt