000 AXNT20 KNHC 260602 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 105 AM EST Wed Feb 26 2020 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0540 UTC. ...GULF OF MEXICO GALE WARNING... A strong cold front is in the Texas coastal plains. The front will be entering the NW Gulf of Mexico during the late night/ early morning hours of Tuesday night into Wednesday. The forecast for Wednesday morning consists of: gale-force N winds, and sea heights ranging from 10 feet to 16 feet, from 22N to 26N from 96W westward, behind the front. Wind speeds as fast as 45 knots, with possible gusts to storm-force, and sea heights ranging from 10 feet to 16 feet, are forecast for Wednesday afternoon. Storm-force wind conditions are forecast just before Wednesday night starts, from 20N southward from 96W westward. Please read the latest HIGH SEAS FORECAST: MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC, the latest OFFSHORE FORECAST: MIAOFFNT4/FZNT24 KNHC, or go to the website https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml, from the NWS National Hurricane Center, for more details. ...HEAVY RAINFALL POTENTIAL IN NORTHERN HONDURAS... It is likely that heavy rainfall may affect northwestern and north central sections of Honduras, from Thursday through Saturday, behind a strong cold front. It is possible that the heavy rain in Honduras may lead to significant flash floods and mudslides. A period of heavy rain is likely, also, from Wednesday afternoon through Thursday, in central Guatemala and in the southeastern parts of the Mexican states of Veracruz and northern Chiapas. Some localized flooding is possible in SE Mexico and in Guatemala. The greatest threat for flooding is in northern Honduras. Please monitor the latest forecasts from your local or national meteorological service. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough passes through the coastal areas of Liberia near 06N10W, to 05N14W. The ITCZ continues from 05N14W, to 04N20W, 01N30W, crossing the Equator along 34W, to 03N44W at the coast of Brazil. Precipitation: widely scattered to scattered moderate and isolated strong is within 280 nm to the north of ITCZ between 30W and 44W. Scattered moderate to strong is within 125 nm to the south of the monsoon trough between 17W and 22W. Isolated moderate is elsewhere from 07N southward. GULF OF MEXICO... A stationary front passes through the Florida Panhandle, into the north central Gulf of Mexico, to the Lower Valley of Texas. A second and stronger cold front is in the Texas coastal plains now. It will be moving into the Gulf of Mexico soon. Please read the SPECIAL FEATURES section, in order to be aware of the gale- force and storm-force wind conditions that are in the forecast. Precipitation: Broken to overcast multilayered clouds and possible rainshowers are to the NW of the line that runs from the west central coast of Florida into the SW corner of the Gulf of Mexico. A 1011 mb low is near 29N89W with a cold front extending to 26N93W and to inland Texas just north of Brownsville. A strong cold front will blast into the NW and north-central Gulf tonight into early Wed and overtake this front on Wed. The merged cold front will quickly move to the southeast of the area by Wed night. Storm force winds are expected over a portion of the SW Gulf on Wed afternoon before diminishing to strong gale force winds on Wed night. Gale force winds are expected elsewhere behind the front over the central and western Gulf waters through Wed night. Seas will build to large values behind the front resulting in possible hazardous marine conditions. For the remainder of the Gulf, expect strong to near gale force northwest winds during this period. Winds and associated seas will diminish Thu through Fri as high pressure settles in over the NW Gulf. The southern part of a cold front will clip the NE Gulf Fri night into Sat followed by fresh to strong northwest winds. The high pressure will shift eastward to the NE Gulf by late Sun behind this front. CARIBBEAN SEA... An upper level ridge is in Central America. It is pushing upper level westerly wind across the Caribbean Sea. Precipitation: Broken to overcast multilayered clouds and possible rainshowers are in the Caribbean Sea to the north of the line that runs from 16N83W to 14N74W to 10N63W. 24-hour rainfall totals that are listed for the period that ended at 26/0000 UTC, according to the PAN AMERICAN TEMPERATURE AND PRECIPITATION TABLES, MIATPTPAN/SXCA01 KNHC, are: 0.09 in Guadeloupe. High pressure north and east of the Caribbean in combination with low pressure over S America will maintain strong northeast to east winds pulsing each night through the weekend off the Colombian coast. A cold front will move into the NW Caribbean Wed evening, then push southeastward to a position from eastern Cuba to eastern Honduras by Thu evening. The front will become stationary from Hispaniola to Costa Rica by Sun morning. Fresh to strong N winds can be expected in the wake of this wake of this front. ATLANTIC OCEAN... A slowly-moving cold front passes through 32N45W, to 26N50W, to 21N56W. Precipitation: widely scattered moderate to isolated strong is within 90 nm to the SE and within 60 nm to the NW of the cold front, from 23N northward. Broken to overcast multilayered clouds and possible rainshowers are elsewhere from 14N to 27N between 50W and 60W. A surface trough is along 32W/33W from 17N to 29N. The trough replaces the low pressure center from 18 hours ago. An upper level cyclonic circulation center is near 28N33W. Comparatively drier air in subsidence is within 700 nm to 800 nm of the upper level cyclonic center in the S semicircle. Precipitation: rainshowers are possible within 500 nm to the east of the trough from 26N to 31N, and within 400 nm to the west of the trough from 14N to 30N. Fresh to strong south to southwest north of the Bahamas will shift eastward and diminish some through early Wed in advance of a cold front that will move off the southeastern U.S. coast Wed. Behind the front, strong northeast winds will occur Wed night into Thu north of the Bahamas, when the front will reach a Bahamas to eastern Cuba line. The front will slow down and become stationary during the weekend from near 31N60W to Hispaniola. A reinforcing cold front could bring strong northwest winds to areas north of 25N this weekend. $$ mt