000 AXNT20 KNHC 251809 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 109 PM EST Tue Feb 25 2020 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1745 UTC. ...GULF OF MEXICO GALE WARNING... A strong cold front is forecast to enter the NW Gulf of Mexico tonight. Expect gale-force N winds from 21N to 28N between 90W and 98W behind the front, with winds 30 to 45 knots and sea heights between 11 to 15 feet. Please read the latest High Seas Forecast issued by the National Hurricane Center under AWIPS/WMO headers MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC or at website https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml for further details ...HEAVY RAINFALL POTENTIAL FROM SE MEXICO TO NORTHERN HONDURAS... It is likely that heavy rainfall may affect sections of southeastern Mexico, central Guatemala, and northern Honduras, behind a strong cold front, from Wednesday into Thursday. It is possible that the rains may lead to flash flooding and mudslides. The area with the greatest potential for significant flooding and mudslides is in the northwestern and north central parts of Honduras, from Wed night through Saturday night. Localized flooding is possible in the southeastern parts of the Mexican state of Veracruz and in the northern part of Chiapas, and in central Guatemala, from Wed afternoon until Thu evening. Please monitor the latest forecasts from your local or national meteorological service. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough passes through the southern coast of Liberia from 04N07W to 02N14W. The ITCZ continues from 02N14W to 01N28W. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection is seen south of the monsoon trough from 02S-04N between 03W-06W, and along the ITCZ from 00N-03N between 22W-31W, and near the coast of Brazil from 03S-01N between 32W-43W. GULF OF MEXICO... A weak cold front is observed extending from the FL Panhandle to South Texas near 26N97W A pre-frontal trough is seen ahead of the front from 26N87W to the Bay of Campeche near 18N93W. Scattered moderate convection is seen along the front with a mix of broken to overcast mid and high clouds streaming across the NW Gulf. To the east of 87W near the trough, scattered moderate isolated strong tstorms are present from 26N-28N and east of 88W to the FL coast. ASCAT data shows light to moderate SE winds across the basin with strongest winds behind the front. The weak cold front curves SW from Pensacola Fl to Brownsville TX. A reinforcing cold front will head SW from the southern United States and merge with the front currently over the Gulf. The merged cold front will quickly pass to the SE of the Gulf by Wed night. Strong gales will cover much of the SW Gulf Wed and Wed night. Near storm force NW winds will be possible near Veracruz late Wed. For the remainder of the Gulf, expect strong, near gale force, NW winds during this period. Winds and associated seas will diminish Thu and Fri as high pressure builds in. CARIBBEAN SEA... The tail end of the stationary front in the Atlantic Ocean enters the Caribbean Sea from the U.S. Virgin Islands south of PR to 16N71W. Scattered moderate convection is in the vicinity of the boundary affecting PR and Dominican Republic and Jamaica. ASCAT data indicates light to moderate easterly trade winds across the basin with the exception of lighter winds in the western Caribbean. a surface trough extends from 18N59W to 10N65W. High pressure N and E of the Caribbean and low pressure over S America will maintain strong NE to E winds pulsing each night through the weekend off the Colombian coast. Strong E winds S of Hispaniola today. A cold front will move into the NW Caribbean Wed evening, then push SE to stretch from E Cuba to E Honduras by Thu evening. The front will eventually stall from Hispaniola to Costa Rica by Sun morning. Behind the front, fresh to strong N winds can be expected throughout the week. ATLANTIC OCEAN... A slow-moving cold front passes through 31N48W to 22N55W, then dissipates to 18N63W. Scattered moderate convection is noted N of 24N to 31N between 47W-50W, south of 24N scattered showers are lingering near the frontal boundary. Further east, a surface trough is seen from 27N27W to 22N29W to 17N34W. SAL is very well depicted by the GOES 16 satellite limiting convection near the trough. A few showers are seen about 180 nm on either side of a trough near the Cabo Verde Islands extending from 19N22W to 10N15W. Fresh to strong S to SW winds are expected N of the Bahamas today and tonight in advance of a cold front due to move off the SE U.S. coast Wed. Behind the front, strong NW winds will occur Wed night into Thu N of the Bahamas, when the front will reach a Bahamas to E Cuba line. The front will slow down and stall during the weekend from 31N60W to Hispaniola. A reinforcing cold front could bring strong NW winds to areas N of 25N this weekend. $$ Torres