442 AXNT20 KNHC 251144 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 705 AM EST Tue Feb 25 2020 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1130 UTC. ...GULF OF MEXICO GALE WARNING... A strong cold front is forecast to enter the NW Gulf of Mexico on Tuesday night, and cover the Gulf of Mexico along a NE-to-SW oriented line by Wednesday morning. Expect gale-force N winds from 21N to 28N between 90W and 98W, behind the front. Wind speeds as fast as 45 knots, with possible gusts to storm- force, will affect the areas that are from 20N to 27N between 90W and 98W. Expect sea heights ranging from 10 feet to 18 feet, from 20N southward from 95W westward, The conditions will begin to improve into Thursday. Please read the latest HIGH SEAS FORECAST: MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC, the latest OFFSHORE FORECAST: MIAOFFNT4/FZNT24 KNHC, or go to the website https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml, from the NWS National Hurricane Center, for more details. ...HEAVY RAINFALL POTENTIAL FROM SE MEXICO TO NORTHERN HONDURAS... It is likely that heavy rainfall may affect sections of southeastern Mexico, central Guatemala, and northern Honduras, behind a strong cold front, from Wednesday into Thursday. It is possible that the rains may lead to flash flooding and mudslides. The area with the greatest potential for significant flooding and mudslides is in the northwestern and north central parts of Honduras, from Wednesday night through Saturday night. Localized flooding is possible in the southeastern parts of the Mexican state of Veracruz and in the northern part of Chiapas, and in central Guatemala, from Wednesday afternoon until Thursday evening. Please monitor the latest forecasts from your local or national meteorological service. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough passes through the Prime Meridian along 06N, to 05N05W at the coast of Africa, to 0lN12W and 01N16W. The ITCZ continues from 01N16W, to the Equator along 21W, to 02N26W, and returning to the Equator along 34W. Precipitation: scattered moderate to isolated strong within 125 nm to the south of the monsoon trough between 02W and 06W. Widely scattered moderate to isolated strong from 04N southward between 23W and 36W. Isolated moderate to locally strong elsewhere to the south of the line that runs from the coast of Africa near 10N14W to 08N30W and 08N60W. GULF OF MEXICO... The Texas coast cold front from 6 hours ago has weakened and dissipated. A surface trough extends from SE Louisiana, to 29N92W in the NW corner of the Gulf of Mexico, to 25N95W. Precipitation: Broken to overcast multilayered clouds and possible rainshowers are to the NW of the line that runs from the Florida Big Bend to the coast of Mexico near 20N97W. A reinforcing front will move into the NW corner of the Gulf of Mexico later today, and by tonight the stronger merged cold front will stretch from the FL Panhandle to W Bay of Campeche by this evening, then move SE of the Gulf by Wed night. Behind it, strong gale-force winds will develop in much of the SW Gulf Wed and continue into Wed night, with near storm-force NW winds possible offshore Veracruz late Wed. For the remainder of the Gulf, expect strong, near gale force, NW winds during this period. Winds and associated seas will diminish Thu as high pressure builds in, and by Fri, tranquil conditions will dominate. CARIBBEAN SEA... A dissipating stationary front starts in the Atlantic Ocean near 21N58W, across the islands that are just to the east of Puerto Rico, to the SE corner of Puerto Rico, to 17N70W, about 90 nm to the south of the SE part of the Dominican Republic. Precipitation: Broken to overcast multilayered clouds and possible rainshowers are in the Caribbean Sea and in the Atlantic Ocean, from 15N to 22N between 55W and 82W. A surface trough is along 18N60W 14N63W 10N65W, from the Atlantic Ocean into the SE corner of the Caribbean Sea. Precipitation: broken to overcast multilayered clouds and possible rainshowers are from 16N to 20N between 54W and 60W in the Atlantic Ocean, and from 18N southward between 60W and 70W in the Caribbean Sea. 24-hour rainfall totals that are listed for the period that ended at 25/0000 UTC, according to the PAN AMERICAN TEMPERATURE AND PRECIPITATION TABLES, MIATPTPAN/SXCA01 KNHC, are: 0.08 in Guadeloupe. Tight pressure gradient between high pressure N and E of the Caribbean and lower pressure toward the equator will keep strong NE to E winds pulsing each night through the weekend off the Colombian coast. This gradient will also create strong E winds S of Hispaniola today. This front will move into the NW Caribbean Wed evening, then stretch from E Cuba to E Honduras by Thu eve. By the weekend, the front will stall from Hispaniola to Costa Rica. Behind the front, fresh to strong N winds can be expected throughout the week. ATLANTIC OCEAN... A slowly-moving cold front passes through 32N49W, to 26N53W, to 21N58W. The front becomes dissipating stationary at 21N58W, and it continues to 19N63W, into the Caribbean Sea across the islands that are just to the east of Puerto Rico, to the SE corner of Puerto Rico, to 17N70W, about 90 nm to the south of the SE part of the Dominican Republic. Precipitation: scattered moderate to isolated strong is within 135 nm to the SE of the cold front from 26N northward. Isolated moderate is elsewhere from 20N northward between 46W and 60 nm to the west of the cold front. Broken to overcast multilayered clouds and possible rainshowers are in the Caribbean Sea and in the Atlantic Ocean, from 15N to 22N between 55W and 82W. A 1016 mb low pressure center is near 21N28W, about 650 nm to the WSW of the Canary Islands, and about 300 nm to the NW of the Cabo Verde Islands. The low pressure center has been weakening with time. Expect strong to near-gale force winds on the northern side of the circulation now. An upper level cyclonic circulation center is near 26N24W, near the surface cyclonic center. Comparatively drier air in subsidence is within 1400 nm of the upper level cyclonic center in the SW semicircle. Dense Saharan dust has been moving across the Atlantic Ocean, with the low center, at least between the Canary Islands and 40W. Precipitation: isolated moderate from 18N to 30N between Africa and 40W. Fresh to strong S flow in advance of a cold front will prevail N of the Bahamas into Wed, when the front will move off the SE U.S. coast. Behind the front, strong NW winds will occur Wed night into Thu N of the Bahamas, when the front will reach a Bahamas to E Cuba line. The front will slow down and stall into the weekend from SE of Bermuda to Hispaniola. A reinforcing cold front may bring strong NW winds to areas N of 25N this weekend. $$ mt