000 AXNT20 KNHC 250527 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 105 AM EST Tue Feb 25 2020 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0510 UTC. ...GULF OF MEXICO GALE WARNING... A strong cold front is forecast to enter the NW Gulf of Mexico on Tuesday night, and move across the Gulf of Mexico on Wednesday. Gale-force N winds, behind the front, will affect much of the Gulf of Mexico to the west of 90W, from 29N southward. Wind speeds as fast as 45 knots, with possible gusts to storm-force, will affect the SW Gulf of Mexico on Wednesday afternoon. Expect sea heights ranging from 10 feet to 18 feet, from 20N southward from 95W westward, The conditions will begin to improve into Thursday. Please read the latest HIGH SEAS FORECAST: MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC, the latest OFFSHORE FORECAST: MIAOFFNT4/FZNT24 KNHC, or go to the website https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml, from the NWS National Hurricane Center, for more details. ...HEAVY RAINFALL POTENTIAL FROM SE MEXICO TO NORTHERN HONDURAS... Heavy rainfall is likely to affect sections of southeastern Mexico, central Guatemala, and northern Honduras, behind a strong cold front, from Wednesday into Thursday. It is possible that the rains may lead to flash flooding and mudslides. The area with the greatest potential for significant flooding and mudslides is in the northwestern and north central parts of Honduras, from Wednesday night through Saturday night. Localized flooding is possible in the southeastern parts of the Mexican state of Veracruz and in the northern part of Chiapas, and in central Guatemala, from Wednesday afternoon until Thursday evening. Please monitor the latest forecasts from your local or national meteorological service. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough passes through the coastal areas of Liberia near 06N10W, to 04N17W and 03N20W. The ITCZ continues from 03N20W, to 02N30W, crossing the Equator along 39W, to the coastal sections of Brazil near 03S44W. Precipitation: isolated moderate to locally strong from 07N southward between 14W and 35W, and from 04N to 06N between 45W and 47W. GULF OF MEXICO... A cold front has reached the coastal waters and coastal plains of Texas. Precipitation: Broken to overcast multilayered clouds and possible rainshowers are to the NW of the line that runs from the Florida Big Bend to the coast of Mexico near 24N98W. Weakening high pressure in the Gulf of Mexico will continue to shift eastward through Tuesday night. The current Texas cold front will reach from the Florida Panhandle to 26N93W and to the far SW Gulf early on Tuesday; from Apalachicola, Florida to 25N92W and stationary to the SW corner of the Gulf of Mexico by Tuesday night, as a second and stronger cold front reaches the Texas coast. Strong high pressure behind this front will allow for the second front to accelerate southeastward reaching from near Sarasota, Florida to inland the Yucatan Peninsula by Wednesday afternoon; and to southeast of the area late on Wednesday. Strong north gale-force winds will develop in the SW Gulf on Wednesday; then continue in the waters near Veracruz and the SW Gulf of Mexico on Wednesday night. Strong north winds with frequent gusts to gale-force, and sea heights building to large values, are expected in most of the waters elsewhere to the west of the front on Wednesday and Wednesday night. High pressure will settle into the area by the end of the week, allowing for improving conditions. CARIBBEAN SEA... A stationary front starts in the Atlantic Ocean at 21N58W, and it continues to 19N63W. The front becomes dissipating stationary at 19N63W, and it continues to 17N69W, just off the SE corner of the Dominican Republic. Precipitation: Broken to overcast multilayered clouds and possible rainshowers are in the Caribbean Sea and in the Atlantic Ocean, from 14N to 22N between 55W and 83W. A surface trough is along 19N59W 16N62W 11N65W, from the Atlantic Ocean into the SE corner of the Caribbean Sea.220 nm to the south of Jamaica, to the eastern coast of the Yucatan Peninsula of Mexico. Precipitation: broken to overcast multilayered clouds and possible rainshowers are from 17N to 20N between 55W and 60W in the Atlantic Ocean, and from 17N southward between 60W and 70W in the Caribbean Sea. 24-hour rainfall totals that are listed for the period that ended at 25/0000 UTC, according to the PAN AMERICAN TEMPERATURE AND PRECIPITATION TABLES, MIATPTPAN/SXCA01 KNHC, are: 0.08 in Guadeloupe. The gradient that is associated with high pressure in the western Atlantic Ocean will allow for strong northeast to east winds to pulse off the coast of Colombian through Saturday night. The gradient also will bring fresh to strong northeast to east winds to the lee of Cuba and Hispaniola, and in the Windward Passage through early Tuesday. A cold front will move in the NW Caribbean Sea on Wednesday evening. The front will reach from east central Cuba to the Gulf of Honduras by Thursday night; and then begin to weaken as it reaches from the Windward Passage to the Honduras/Nicaragua border by Friday afternoon; and from the central Dominican Republic to NW Haiti to 15N78W and to the Nicaragua/Costa Rica border by late Saturday. Fresh to strong northerly winds will follow behind this front mainly in the NW Caribbean Sea through early Saturday, and in the far western Caribbean Sea from 11N to 19N on Saturday. ATLANTIC OCEAN... A cold front passes through 32N49W, to 27N53W, to 21N58W. The front becomes stationary at 21N58W, and it continues to 19N63W. The front becomes dissipating stationary at 19N63W, and it continues to 17N69W, just off the SE corner of the Dominican Republic. Precipitation: widely scattered moderate to isolated strong is within 270 nm to the SE of the cold front from 20N northward. Broken to overcast multilayered clouds and possible rainshowers are in the Caribbean Sea and in the Atlantic Ocean, from 14N to 22N between 55W and 83W. A 1015 mb low pressure center is about 660 nm to the WSW of the Canary Islands, and about 330 nm to the NW of the Cabo Verde Islands. The low pressure center has been weakening with time. Expect strong to near-gale force winds on the northern side of the circulation now. An upper level cyclonic circulation center is near 26N24W, near the surface cyclonic center. Comparatively drier air in subsidence is within 1400 nm of the upper level cyclonic center in the SW semicircle. Dense Saharan dust has been moving across the Atlantic Ocean, with the low center, between the Canary Islands and 40W. Precipitation: widely scattered moderate from 25N to 28N between 18W and 24W. Isolated moderate elsewhere from 20N to 30N between 24W and 38W. Long-period north to northeast swell in the far SE waters will continue to decay through Tuesday evening. Strong south to southwest winds will develop off the N FL coast tonight in advance of the next cold front. These winds will continue through Tuesday evening, and then shift eastward while diminishing through Wednesday. The front will move off the southeastern U.S. coast on Wednesday; reach from near 31N76W to the NW Bahamas and to central Cuba by late Wednesday night; from 31N72W to 24N75W and to east central Cuba on Thursday afternoon; and begin to weaken as it reaches from 30N65W to 24N70W and to northwestern Haiti on Friday afternoon. The front will reach the far southeastern waters by Saturday night. Strong west to northwest winds will follow the front through Thursday night. $$ mt