000 AXNT20 KNHC 250012 CCA TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 712 PM EST Mon Feb 24 2020 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 2330 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... ...GULF OF MEXICO GALE WARNING... A strong cold front enter the NW Gulf of Mexico Tuesday night and move across the Gulf on Wednesday. Behind the front, gale force N winds will affect much of the Gulf west of 90W, south of 29N. Winds as high as 45 kt with possible gusts to storm force will affect the SW Gulf of Mexico Wed afternoon. Expect seas of 12 to 16 ft south of 26N and west of 90W on Wed. Conditions will begin to improve into Thursday. Please read the latest High Seas Forecast issued by the National Hurricane Center under AWIPS/WMO headers MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC or at website https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml for further details. ...HEAVY RAINFALL POTENTIAL SE MEXICO TO NORTHERN HONDURAS... Heavy rainfall is likely to affect portions of southeastern Mexico, central Guatemala and northern Honduras behind a strong cold front later this week. The rains could lead to flash flooding and mudslides. The area with greatest potential for significant flooding and mudslides is over northwestern and north-central portions of Honduras, Wed night through Sat night. Elsewhere, localized flooding is possible over southeastern portions of the Mexican state of Veracruz and northern Chiapas, as well as central Guatemala, from Wed afternoon to Thu evening. Please monitor the latest forecasts from your local or national meteorological service. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough passes through the coast of Liberia from 05N09W to 03N23W. The ITCZ continues from 03N23W to 02N50W. A cluster of scattered moderate to strong convection is seen from 04S-05N between 12W-18W. GULF OF MEXICO... As of 24/2100 UTC, a weak cold front extends from Galveston Bay to the Gulf of Mexico near 27N97W to McAllen Texas near 26N98W to 25N101W. Scattered moderate rainshowers are over the Gulf Coast from the western Florida Panhandle to south-central Louisiana, and over the Gulf of Mexico north of 29N between 85.5W-94W. High pressure over the western Atlantic extends surface ridging over the southern Gulf of Mexico. The weak cold front currently just offshore the Texas coast will reach from near Apalachicola, Florida to near 25N92W and stationary to the central Bay of Campeche by Tue night, as a much stronger cold front reaches the Texas coast. This strong cold front will accelerate southeastward, reaching from near Sarasota, Florida to the Yucatan Peninsula by Wed afternoon and southeast of the Gulf basin late Wed. Northerly gale force winds will develop over the much of the western Gulf early Wed, then continue over the waters near Veracruz and eastern Bay of Campeche Wed evening. Seas will build to large values over the southwest Gulf Wed. High pressure will settle in over the area by the end of the week allowing for improving conditions. CARIBBEAN SEA... A cold front extends from 20N61W to 18N66W, dissipating to 16N72W. Isolated showers are near and north of the front, including over Puerto Rico and Hispaniola. A surface trough extending from 18N60W to 11N64W is bringing isolated showers to portions of the Lesser Antilles and the Caribbean east of 65W. An ASCAT pass from Monday morning showed strong NE winds in the Windward and Mona Passages, as well as the waters south of Hispaniola, and near the coast of N Colombia. Strong NE to E winds will pulse off the Colombian coast through Sat night. Fresh to strong NE to E winds are expected to the lee of Cuba and Hispaniola as well as over the Windward Passage through early Tue. A cold front will move over the northwestern Caribbean Wed evening, reach from east-central Cuba to the Gulf of Honduras by Thu night, then begin to weaken as it reaches from the Windward Passage to the border between Honduras and Nicaragua by Fri afternoon. Fresh to strong northerly winds will follow in behind this front mainly over the northwest Caribbean through early Sat and over the far western Caribbean from 11N to 19N Sat. ATLANTIC OCEAN... A central Atlantic cold front extends from 32N52W to 23N56W to 18N65W. Scattered moderate convection is within 60 nm behind and 120 nm ahead of the front, mainly north of 22N and east of 55W. Farther southwest, isolated showers are near and within 90 nm north of the front, including near Puerto Rico. Over the W Atlantic, high pressure ridging prevails, due to a 1024 mb high near 34N68W. Farther east, a 1014 mb surface low near 24N27W continues to produce 25-30 kt E winds from 25N-32N between 22W- 35W, but the low is expected to continue weakening on Tuesday. An upper-level low nearly co-located with the surface low is helping to induce thunderstorms from 25N-28N between 19W-24W. Enhanced Saharan dust continues to affect the eastern Atlantic between the Canary Islands and 35W. The central Atlantic cold front will slowly move E across the Virgin Islands tonight and dissipate west of 60W by Tue night. Strong S to SW winds will develop off the north FL coast tonight in advance of the next cold front. These winds will continue through Tue evening, then diminish through Wed. The front will move off the southeastern U.S. coast on Wed, reach from near 31N72W to 24N75W to east-central Cuba Thu afternoon and begin to weaken as it reaches from near 30N65W to 24N70W to NW Haiti Fri afternoon. Strong W to NW winds will follow the front through Thu night, mainly north of 27N and west of 73W. $$ Hagen