000 AXNT20 KNHC 241048 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 705 AM EST Mon Feb 24 2020 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1030 UTC. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough passes through the Prime Meridian along 05N, to 04N10W, curving to 02N14W. The ITCZ continues from 02N14W, to 01N17W, 03N22W, 01N30W, to the Equator along 36W. A small section of the ITCZ is in the coastal waters of Brazil, from 03S to 04S between 33W and 38W. Precipitation: scattered moderate to strong from 07N southward between 07W and 16W. Widely scattered moderate to isolated strong from 60 nm to 160 nm to the north of the ITCZ between 26W and 31W. Isolated moderate elsewhere from 08N southward from 45W eastward. Scattered strong in the coastal waters of Brazil, and inland, from 01N to 04N between 46W and 52W. GULF OF MEXICO... A surface ridge passes through north central Florida, into the north central Gulf of Mexico, toward the coast of Mexico near 23N98W. A cold front is moving through west Texas, now. The cold front is forecast to move off the Texas Gulf coast this evening. Fresh S flow is expected today, in advance of a cold front that will move off the TX coast this evening. Strong high pressure will surge S through the Southern Plains, and reinforce this cold front on Tuesday, causing it to surge SE. This front should stretch from the FL Panhandle to the SW corner of the Gulf of Mexico by Tuesday night. The front should clear SE of the area on Wednesday night. Strong N gales will develop in the SW Gulf of Mexico on Wednesday, and continue through Wednesday night. Strong N winds and higher seas are expected elsewhere. High pressure will settle into the area for the end of the week, bringing improving conditions. CARIBBEAN SEA... A cold front passes through 22N60W in the Atlantic Ocean, to 20N64W, across NW Puerto Rico, through the Mona Passage, to the southern coastal waters of Hispaniola, and Haiti, near 17N74W. Precipitation: Broken to overcast multilayered clouds and possible rainshowers are within 120 nm on either side of the front, and from 20N to 23N between 70W and 77W, between Cuba and the Bahamas. A surface trough is along 14N78W 17N83W 19N88W, from 220 nm to the south of Jamaica, to the eastern coast of the Yucatan Peninsula of Mexico. Precipitation: broken to overcast multilayered clouds and possible rainshowers are from 15N northward from 75W westward. A second surface trough, is in the easternmost part of the Caribbean Sea, along 61W/62W from 10N to 20N. Precipitation: broken to overcast multilayered clouds and possible rainshowers are from 16N southward between 58W and 67W. Isolated moderate rainshowers are in the Atlantic Ocean, within 30 nm on either side of 21N56W 18N58W. Strong NE-to-E winds will pulse each night off the coast of Colombia into the weekend. The current cold front, will become stationary, and dissipate with time, today and tonight. Fresh to strong E to NE winds are expected in the lees of Cuba and Hispaniola, and in the Windward Passage into Tuesday, to the NW of the current frontal boundary. A cold front will enter the NW Caribbean Sea on Wednesday evening. The front will stretch from central Cuba to Honduras by Thursday night. The cold front will move toward the central Caribbean Sea, while weakening, into the weekend. Fresh to strong N winds are expected behind this front. ATLANTIC OCEAN... A cold front passes through 32N54W, through 30N54W, to 22N60W, 20N64W, across NW Puerto Rico, through the Mona Passage, to the southern coastal waters of Hispaniola, and Haiti, near 17N74W. Precipitation: scattered moderate to isolated strong within 120 nm to the ESE of the cold front, and within 60 nm to the WNW of the cold front, from 23N northward. Isolated moderate elsewhere from 18N to 23N between 55W and 60W. Broken to overcast multilayered clouds and possible rainshowers are within 120 nm on either side of the rest of the front leading into the Caribbean Sea, and from 20N to 23N between 70W and 77W between Cuba and the Bahamas. A 1014 mb occluded low pressure center is about 370 nm to the WSW of the Canary Islands, and about 520 nm to the N of the Cabo Verde Islands. Gale-force winds were being generated on the northern side of the circulation during the last few days. The low pressure center has been weakening with time. Expect strong to near-gale force winds on the northern side of the circulation now. An upper level cyclonic circulation center is on top of the surface cyclonic center. Comparatively drier air in subsidence is within 1500 nm to the WSW of the center. Dense Saharan dust has been moving across the Atlantic Ocean, with the low center, between the Canary Islands and 40W. Expect the low pressure center to continue in the same general area through Monday, before weakening significantly on Tuesday. Precipitation: isolated moderate within 180 nm of the center in the N semicircle, and rainshowers are possible within 180 nm of the center in the S semicircle. The current slowly-moving cold front will slide eastward across the Virgin Islands today, and then dissipate on Tuesday. Long period N swell will decay gradually into Tuesday, behind this front. Strong S to SW winds will develop off the northern FL coast tonight in advance of a cold front. These winds will prevail through Tuesday evening, and then the front will move off the SE US coast. This cold front will reach the Bahamas by late Wednesday. The front will weaken as it reaches the far eastern waters and Hispaniola by Friday. Some strong W to NW winds are possible behind the front, mainly N of 27N. $$ mt