000 AXNT20 KNHC 232322 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 622 PM EST Sun Feb 23 2020 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 2300 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... ...CENTRAL ATLANTIC GALE WARNING... A 1011 mb low is near 31N58W. Gale force winds are occurring on the west side of the low, between 58W-61W, mainly north of 29N. As the low drifts NE, expect gales to continue on the west and southwest side of the low through Monday afternoon, mainly north of 29N, between 54W-61W. Expect seas of 11 to 15 ft. Please read the latest High Seas Forecast issued by the National Hurricane Center under AWIPS/WMO headers MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC or at website https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml for further details. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough extends from the coast of Liberia near 07N11W to 02N22W. The ITCZ extends from 02N22W to 03S41W. Scattered moderate convection is from 04S-07N between 04W-23W. Isolated moderate convection is from 06S-03N between 23W-37W. GULF OF MEXICO... Weak surface high pressure over the southeast U.S. extends a surface ridge into the central Gulf of Mexico. Some mid to high clouds and possible isolated showers are over the northwest and north-central Gulf. Wind speeds are moderate for much of the Gulf, except for fresh E winds in the Florida Straits and fresh S to SE winds in the far west-central Gulf. As the high pressure shifts eastward, fresh to locally strong S flow will develop over the far western Gulf tonight. A weak cold front will move into the NW Gulf Mon night and Tue morning. A stronger reinforcing front will follow Tue night and Wed morning. The combined front will move southeast of the area by Wed night. Gale force northwest to north winds will develop over waters south of 25N and west of 94W Wed and Wed night. Fresh to strong winds are expected elsewhere behind the front. Winds will diminish Thu through Fri night as high pressure settles in over the NW Gulf. CARIBBEAN SEA... A cold front extends from the Atlantic near 20N66W across Hispaniola to 18N72W. A dissipating stationary front continues to 18N72W to Jamaica. Isolated to scattered showers are within 90 nm of the front. In the western Caribbean, a surface trough extends from 16N78W to Cozumel Mexico. Fresh NE winds are between the trough axis and the southern coast of Cuba, as well as through the Windward passage. Fresh N winds are near the east coast of northern Nicaragua. Gentle trades are over the eastern Caribbean. A surface trough is along 62W from 09N-19N. Isolated showers are over the Windward Islands and east of the Leeward Islands. Subsidence and dry air are noted south of 15.5N between 64W-77W. Strong northeast to east winds will pulse each night along the coast of Colombia through Thu night. A weakening stationary front extending from the SW tip of Haiti to Jamaica will dissipate by Tue. Behind this front, fresh to locally strong winds are expected to the lee of Cuba, the Dominican Republic and over and downwind of the Mona Passage tonight through Tue. The next cold front will move into the far NW Caribbean Wed night, then move across the rest of the NW Caribbean through Thu night and across the central Caribbean Fri while weakening. Fresh to strong north winds will follow in behind the front over the NW Caribbean. ATLANTIC OCEAN... See section above for details on the Gale Warning in the central Atlantic Ocean. A 1011 mb low is over the central Atlantic near 31N58W. A cold front extends from a triple point near 33N56W to 25N60W to 20N66W across Hispaniola to 18N72W. Scattered moderate convection is along and east of the front, and east of the low, from 25N-32N between 51W-58W. Isolated to scattered showers are elsewhere within 90 nm of the front. Near gale to gale force NE winds on the west side of the low and front are confined to areas north of 28N and east of 64W. Elsewhere, behind the front, fresh to strong NE winds prevail over much of the western Atlantic within about 540 nm behind the front, including the Bahamas and Old Bahama Channel. An occluded low in the NE Atlantic near 26N26W continues to fuel strong to near gale force winds on the north side of the low from the Canary Islands to 32W, and on the west side of the low from 24N-32N, east of 32W. Scattered thunderstorms are seen from 26N- 29N between 23W-29W. This low is also spreading dense Saharan dust across the NE Atlantic between the Canary Islands and 37W. Expect the low to continue in the same general area through Monday before weakening significantly on Tuesday. The central Atlantic cold front will stall from 22N55W to the Virgin Islands Mon night, then dissipate by Wed. The 1011 mb low near 31N58W will bring fresh to strong north to northeast winds over the waters N of 25N and E of 67W tonight. Long-period north to northeast swell west of the cold front will propagate southeastward and gradually decay through Tue. Strong S to SW winds will develop east of N Florida Mon night through Tue night ahead of the next strong cold front expected to move across those same waters Wed. The front will reach from 31N65W to the Windward Passage by late Fri while it weakens. Fresh to strong northwest winds will follow this front through Thu night before diminishing. $$ Hagen