000 AXNT20 KNHC 231801 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 101 PM EST Sun Feb 23 2020 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1745 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... ...CENTRAL ATLANTIC GALE WARNING... A 1011 mb low is along a W Atlantic front near 30N56W. Winds to gale force are expected this evening through Mon evening, mainly north of 30N, between 60W-67W. Expect seas of 10 to 13 ft. Please read the latest High Seas Forecast issued by the National Hurricane Center under AWIPS/WMO headers MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC or at website https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml for further details. ...EAST ATLANTIC GALE WARNING... A 1015 mb low is S of the Canary Islands near 27N18W. A surface trough extends NW from the low to 31N23W. Meteo France is forecasting gale force winds for zones Madeira and Canarias until 24/1200 UTC Monday. This area includes the Canary Islands. Please refer to the Meteo-France High Seas Forecast listed on their website www.meteofrance.com/previsions-meteo- marine/bulletin/grandlarge/metarea2 for further details. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough extends from the coast of Liberia near 06N10W to 01N21W. The ITCZ extends from 01N21W to the coast of Brazil near 02S39W. Scattered moderate convection is from 03S-05N between 14W-22w, scattered showers elsewhere along the boundary GULF OF MEXICO... A 1028 mb high pressure is centered near the N Carolina coast extending across the Gulf of Mexico. A mix of broken to overcast low clouds remain near the western Gulf especially west of 92W and along the Mexican coast. A surface trough is near the area from 24N97W to 18N97W. Scatterometer data shows light to moderate winds over the NE Gulf and moderate to fresh NE winds in the SE Gulf and the Straits of Florida. As high pres shifts E, fresh to locally strong S flow will develop over the far western Gulf tonight. A weak cold front will move into the NW Gulf Mon night and Tue morning. A stronger reinforcing front will follow Tue night and Wed morning. The combined front will move SE of the basin by Wed night. Gale force NW to N winds will develop over waters S of 25N and W of 94W Wed and Wed night. Fresh to strong winds are expected elsewhere behind the front, then winds will subside Thu and Thu night as high pres builds over the NW Gulf. CARIBBEAN SEA... A cold front extends from the Atlantic across Hispaniola near 18N73W as a stationary front to southern Nicaragua near 11N83W. Scattered showers are within 100 m of the front. The front is dissipating across the area. In the western Caribbean, fresh to locally strong NE winds are present south of Cuba to Jamaica between 77W-82W and light N winds cover the SW Caribbean Sea S of 18N. Gentle to moderate tradewinds are over the central and E Caribbean, except for fresh to locally strong near the coast of N Colombia. In the upper levels, zonal flow with strong subsidence is noted. Strong NE to E winds will pulse each night along the coast of Colombia through Thu night. A weakening stationary front extending from the SW tip of Haiti to SE Nicaragua will dissipate by Tue. Behind this front, fresh to locally strong winds are expected to the lee of Cuba, the Dominican Republic and over and downwind of the Mona Passage tonight through Tue. The next cold front will move into the NW Caribbean Wed night. ATLANTIC OCEAN... See section above for details on the two Gale Warnings in the Atlantic Ocean. A 1011 mb low is over the W Atlantic near 30N56W. A cold front extends SW from the low to 19N71W near Hispaniola. Scattered showers are within 60 nm of the front and north of 20N. Strong N winds are behind the front. Elsewhere, a surface trough is E of the Leeward and Windward Islands from 18N59W to 08N58W. Scattered showers are within 60 nm of the trough axis. Further E, a 1016 mb low is near 24N24W. Near the Canary Islands, a surface trough extends NW from the low to 26N18W to 25N14W. The surface pressure gradient is tighter NE of this trough producing gale force winds. The cold front will stretch from 19N65N to the Mona Passage by this evening. The front is slowing down and will stall from 22N55W to over the Virgin Islands Mon night, then dissipate by Wed. Low pres forming today near 29N60W could generate strong N winds over the waters N of 25N and E of 67W today and tonight. Long period N swell W of the cold front will propagate SE and gradually decay through Tue. S to SW winds N of 28N and W of 75W will become strong Mon night through Tue night ahead of the next cold front expected to push SE from Florida Wed. $$ MMT