000 AXNT20 KNHC 231112 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 611 AM EST Sun Feb 23 2020 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1045 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... ...CENTRAL ATLANTIC GALE WARNING... A 1011 mb low is along a W Atlantic front near 30.5N58W. Winds to gale force are expected Sun evening through Mon evening, mainly north of 30N, between 60W-67W. Expect seas of 10 to 14 ft. Please read the latest High Seas Forecast issued by the National Hurricane Center under AWIPS/WMO headers MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC or at website https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml for further details. ...EAST ATLANTIC GALE WARNING... A 1012 mb low is S of the Canary Islands near 25.5N15W. A surface trough extends NW from the low to 29N20W. Meteo France is forecasting gale force winds for zones Madeira and Canarias until 24/1200 UTC Monday. This area includes the Canary Islands. Please refer to the Meteo-France High Seas Forecast listed on their website www.meteofrance.com/previsions-meteo- marine/bulletin/grandlarge/metarea2 for further details. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough extends from the coast of Sierra Leone near 07N12W to 01N22W. The ITCZ extends from 01N22W to 01S30W to the coast of Brazil near 03S39W. Widely scattered moderate convection is from 06N-05S between 07W-39W. GULF OF MEXICO... A 1028 mb high is centered over S Georgia near 32N84W. 5-10 kt easterly winds are over the NE Gulf. 15-20 kt NE winds are over the SE Gulf and the Straits of Florida. 10-15 kt E to SE winds are over the W Gulf. A surface trough is over the western Bay of Campeche from 22N98W to 19N96W. Broken to overcast low clouds are over the SW Gulf W of 94W. Elsewhere, radar imagery shows scattered showers over the Straits of Florida moving W. As high pressure shifts E of the Gulf, fresh to locally strong southerly flow will develop over the far western Gulf by tonight. A weak cold front will move into the NW Gulf Mon night into Tue morning, with a stronger reinforcing front likely Tue night into Wed morning. This front will move SE of the basin by Wed night. Gale force northwest to north winds will follow in behind the front over the west-central and SW Gulf waters on Wed and Wed night, with fresh to strong winds elsewhere behind the front. CARIBBEAN SEA... A cold front extends from Hispaniola near 20N72W to Nicaragua near 13N83W. Scattered showers are within 120 m of the front. Fresh to locally strong N winds cover the NW Caribbean sea behind the front, including the Yucatan Channel. Gentle to moderate tradewinds are over the central and E Caribbean, except for fresh to locally strong near the coast of N Colombia. In the upper levels, zonal flow with strong subsidence is noted. Strong NE to E wind will pulse each night through Thu night off the coast of Colombia. A cold front that extends early this morning from Hispaniola to S Nicaragua will become nearly stationary by tonight, from the Mona Passage to the Nicaragua/ Costa Rica border. This front will then gradually dissipate through the middle of the week. Behind this front, fresh to locally strong winds are expected in the lees of Cuba and the Dominican Republic and downwind of the Mona Passage into Tue. Another cold front will move into the NW Caribbean Wed night. ATLANTIC OCEAN... See section above for details on the two Gale Warnings in the Atlantic Ocean. A 1011 mb low is over the W Atlantic near 30.5N58W. A cold front extends SW from the low to 23N64W to Hispaniola near 20N72W. Scattered showers are within 90 nm of the front. Strong NE winds are behind the front. Elsewhere, a surface trough is E of the Leeward and Windward Islands from 18N59W to 08N58W. Scattered showers are within 60 nm of the trough axis. Further E, a 1012 mb low is S of the Canary Islands near 25.5N15W. A surface trough extends NW from the low to 29N20W. The surface pressure gradient is tighter NE of this trough producing gale force winds. The W Atlantic cold front will stretch from 31N56N to the Mona Passage by this evening. The front will slow down and stall over the Virgin Islands Mon, then gradually dissipate into the middle of the week. Low pressure is expected to form today near 29N60W, there may be some strong N winds on the back side of this low across NE waters today and tonight. Long period N swell west of the cold front will gradually decay through Tue as it propagates SE. S winds in advance of the next front will increase to strong Mon night through Tue night. $$ Formosa