910 AXNT20 KNHC 230546 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1246 AM EST Sun Feb 23 2020 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0515 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... ...CENTRAL ATLANTIC GALE WARNING... A 1011 mb low is forecast to be along a W Atlantic front on 23/1800 UTC Sun evening near 30N59W. Winds to gale force are expected Sun evening through Mon evening, mainly north of 30N, between 50W-63W, with this low pressure system. Expect seas of 10 to 16 ft in the area. Please read the latest High Seas Forecast issued by the National Hurricane Center under AWIPS/WMO headers MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC or at website https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml for further details. ...EAST ATLANTIC GALE WARNING... A 1016 mb low is W of the Canary Islands near 26N23W, moving slowly SW with a surface trough extending north from the low. Meteo France is forecasting NE to E gale force winds for southern portions of the zone Madeira and northern portions of the zone Canarias, beginning at 23/0000 UTC and lasting through 23/1800 UTC, Sunday evening. This encompasses the general area from 27N- 32N between 12W-22W, including the Canary Islands. Near gales are expected elsewhere over portions of the zones Madeira, Tarfaya, Canarias, Meteor and Irving through Monday. Please refer to the Meteo-France High Seas Forecast listed on their website www.meteofrance.com/previsions- meteo- marine/bulletin/grandlarge/metarea2 for further details. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough extends from the coast of Sierra Leone near 07N12W to 03N20W. The ITCZ extends from 03N20W to 00N30W to the coast of Brazil near 04S38W. Widely scattered moderate convection is from 05N-05S between 10W-40W. GULF OF MEXICO... A 1028 mb high is centered over S Alabama near 30N88W. Broken to overcast low clouds are over the SW Gulf W of 94W. Radar imagery shows scattered showers over the Straits of Florida moving W. Fresh NE winds are present over the SE Gulf, while gentle winds are in the vicinity of the High. With high pressure now having settled in over the area, winds over the basin will diminish through Sun night. The next cold front will move over the NW Gulf Mon night and Tue, followed by a stronger front Tue night and Wed. This front will quickly exit the Gulf by late Wed night. Gale force northwest to north winds will follow in behind the front over the west-central and SW Gulf waters on Wed and Wed night. CARIBBEAN SEA... A cold front extends from the Windward Passage near 20N74W to E Jamaica near 18N77W to N Nicaragua near 15N83W. Scattered showers are within 60 m of the front. Fresh to locally strong N winds cover the NW Caribbean sea behind the front, including the Yucatan Channel. Gentle to moderate tradewinds are over the central and E Caribbean, except for fresh to locally strong near the coast of N Colombia. In the upper levels, zonal flow with strong subsidence is noted. Strong northeast to east will pulse each night through Wed night off the coast of Colombia. A cold front extending from NW Haiti to eastern Jamaica and to inland northeastern Nicaragua will become stationary from Puerto Rico to southeastern Nicaragua Sun night, then dissipate by Tue. Fresh to locally strong winds are expected W of the front until Mon morning, especially through the Windward Passage and to the lee of Cuba. Another cold front will move into the northwestern Caribbean Wed night, reach from eastern Cuba to the northeast part of Honduras early Thu afternoon and from the Windward Passage to the northeast part of Nicaragua Thu night. This front will be followed by fresh to strong north winds and building seas, including the Yucatan Channel and vicinity waters. ATLANTIC OCEAN... See section above for details on the two Gale Warnings in the Atlantic Ocean. A cold front over the W Atlantic extends from 31N56W to 25N65W to the Windward Passage near 20N74W. Scattered showers are within 90 nm of the front. Strong NE winds are behind the front. Elsewhere, a surface trough is E of the Leeward and Windward Islands from 19N58W to 10N58W. Scattered showers are within 60 nm of the trough axis. A 1016 mb low is W of the Canary Islands near 26N23W. Scattered showers are within 240 nm of the N quadrant. The W Atlantic cold front will will slow down as it moves across the far SE waters Sun, and to east of 65W north off 22N Sun night. The portion of the front S of 22N will slowly shift to the east of Puerto Rico and the U.S. Virgin Islands on Mon. Fresh to strong northeast winds behind the front will diminish to mainly fresh winds on Sun. Low pressure is expected to form along the front tonight near 29N61W. A tight gradient between the low and high pressure over the area will result in near gale force north to northeast winds to far NE waters Sun. Large north swell west of the front will slowly decay as it propagates southeastward through Sun night. Winds and seas will diminish early next week, then increase over the northwest waters Mon night through Tue in advance of the next cold front. This cold front is forecast to move over the northwest waters Tue night, then reach from near 31N77W to east-central Florida Wed, from near 31N76W to S Florida Wed night, then move across the rest of western part of the area early on Thu. It will reach from near 31N69W to 25N71W and to the Windward Passage Thu night. Fresh to strong west to northwest winds and building seas will follow in behind this front. $$ Formosa