000 AXNT20 KNHC 222251 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 551 PM EST Sat Feb 22 2020 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 2230 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... ...CENTRAL ATLANTIC GALE WARNING... A cold front extends from 32N55W to 26N64W to 20N75W. Low pressure is forecast to form along the front tonight in the vicinity of 28N61W and slide northeastward along the front Sunday while deepening. Winds to gale force are expected Sunday into Monday, mainly north of 27N, between 50W-63W, with this low pressure system. Expect seas of 10 to 17 ft in the area. Please read the latest High Seas Forecast issued by the National Hurricane Center under AWIPS/WMO headers MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC or at website https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml for further details. ...EAST ATLANTIC GALE WARNING... A 1016 mb low is W of the Canary Islands near 29N22W, moving slowly SW with a surface trough extending north from the low. Scattered showers are near the low. Meteo France is forecasting NE to E gale force winds for southern portions of the zone Maderia and northern portions of the zone Canarias, beginning now at 23/0000 UTC and lasting through 23/1800 UTC, Sunday evening. This encompasses the general area from 27N-32N between 12W-22W, including the Canary Islands. Near gales are expected elsewhere over portions of the zones Maderia, Tarfaya, Canarias, Meteor and Irving through Monday. Please refer to the Meteo-France High Seas Forecast listed on their website www.meteofrance.com/previsions- meteo-marine/bulletin/grandlarge/metarea2 for further details. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough extends from the coast of Sierra Leone near 07N12W to 03N18W. The ITCZ extends from 03N18W to 01S30W to the coast of Brazil near 02S45W. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection is from 04S-04N between 19W-45W. GULF OF MEXICO... A 1033 mb high centered over Alabama is spreading a surface ridge across the Gulf of Mexico. Mid- to upper-level ridging also extends over the Gulf. A surface trough over the SW Gulf of Mexico near the coast of Mexico is enhancing cloud cover with possible light showers. Fresh NE winds are present over southern and eastern portions of the Gulf of Mexico, with gentle winds in the northwest to north-central Gulf. With high pressure now having settled in over the area, winds over the basin will diminish through Sun night. The next cold front will move over the NW Gulf Mon night and Tue, followed by a stronger front Tue night and Wed. This front will quickly exit the Gulf by late Wed night. Gale force northwest to north winds will follow in behind the front over the west-central and SW Gulf waters on Wed and Wed night. CARIBBEAN SEA... A cold front extends from E Cuba near 20N75W to W Jamaica near 18N78W to the Honduras/Nicaragua border near 15N83W to 14N89W. The front is mostly void of precipitation across the Caribbean Sea except for isolated light showers. Fresh to locally strong N winds cover the NW Caribbean sea behind the front, including the Yucatan Channel. Gentle to moderate tradewinds are over the central and E Caribbean, except for fresh to locally strong near the coast of N Colombia. Subsidence and dry air dominate the eastern and central Caribbean ahead of the front. The cold front will become stationary from Puerto Rico to southeastern Nicaragua Sun night, then dissipate by Tue. Fresh to locally strong winds are expected W of the front until Mon morning, especially through the Windward Passage and to the lee of Cuba. Strong northeast to east winds will pulse each night through Wed night off the coast of Colombia. Another cold front will move into the northwestern Caribbean Wed night, and reach from the Windward Passage to the northeast part of Nicaragua Thu night. This front will be followed by fresh to strong north winds and building seas, including the Yucatan Channel and vicinity waters. ATLANTIC OCEAN... See section above for details on the two Gale Warnings in the Atlantic Ocean. A cold front over the west-central Atlantic extends from 32N55W to 26N64W to eastern Cuba near 20N75W. Scattered showers are near the front, mainly north of 21N and east of 71W. Strong to near gale force NE winds are behind the front, especially within 180 nm behind the front from 23N-29N. Elsewhere, a surface trough is E of the Leeward Islands along 57W from 15N-20N. Scattered showers are within 60 nm of the trough axis. A 1016 mb low is W of the Canary Islands near 29N22W. Scattered showers are within the vicinity of the low pressure. Strong to gale force winds are north and northeast of the low. The cold front from near 26N64W to eastern Cuba will slow down as it moves across waters N of Puerto Rico Sun. Low pressure is expected to form along the front tonight near 28N61W. Near gale to gale force north to northeast winds are expected east of 65W and north of 27N Sun. Large north swell west of the front is currently affecting Atlantic/outward-facing beaches of the Bahamas. This swell will slowly decay as it propagates southeastward through Sun night. Winds and seas will diminish early next week over the western Atlantic, then increase east of northern Florida Mon night through Tue in advance of the next cold front. This cold front is forecast to move over that area Tue night, then reach from near 31N76W to S Florida Wed night, and from near 31N69W to the Windward Passage Thu night. Fresh to strong west to northwest winds and building seas will follow in behind this front. $$ Hagen