000 AXNT20 KNHC 212324 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 624 PM EST Fri Feb 21 2020 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 2310 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Gale Warnings are in effect for portions of the southwest Gulf of Mexico and western Atlantic Ocean. Please read the latest High Seas Forecast issued by the National Hurricane Center under AWIPS/WMO headers MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC or at website https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml for further details on the special features mentioned below. ...GULF OF MEXICO GALE WARNING... As of 21/2100 UTC, a cold front extends from Andros Island Bahamas to the Yucatan Channel to the southeastern Bay of Campeche. Gale force northerly winds are occurring in the southwestern Gulf of Mexico offshore of Veracruz Mexico. The gales are forecast to end late this evening. Wave heights of 13 to 19 ft are expected. ...WEST ATLANTIC OCEAN GALE WARNING... As of 21/2100 UTC, a cold front over the W Atlantic extends from 31N66.5W to Andros Island near 25N78W to western Cuba near 23N82W. The SW gales that were along and just ahead of the front are ending south of 31N now, at 22/0000 UTC. However, northerly gales are still occurring well behind the front, off the coast of northern and central Florida, mainly north of 28N between 74W-81W. Near gale N winds with frequent gusts to gale force are between South Florida and the NW Bahamas. Gale force winds will end overnight by 22/0600 UTC. NOAA buoy 41010 located 115 nm east of Cape Canaveral Florida recently reported a significant wave height of 18 feet. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough extends from the coast of Sierra Leone near 07N12W to 04N19W. The ITCZ extends from 04N19W to 00N30W to the coast of Brazil near 02S45W. Scattered moderate with embedded isolated strong convection is from 04S-04N between 30W-48W. Farther east, isolated to scattered moderate convection is from 02S-06N between 04W-24W. GULF OF MEXICO... As of 21/2100 UTC, a cold front extends from Andros Island Bahamas to the Yucatan Channel to the southeastern Bay of Campeche. Strong N winds cover the Gulf of Mexico behind the front, with gale force winds offshore of Veracruz. Broken clouds cover the basin behind the front south of 28N. Skies are clearing now along the U.S. northern Gulf Coast. The cold front will pass SE of the Gulf tonight. Gale force NW winds offshore of Veracruz, Mexico will persist this evening, then diminish below gale force by early Sat morning. Elsewhere, strong N to NE winds and large seas in N swell will continue through tonight, then subside this weekend. Another cold front will move across the Gulf Mon night through Tue night, followed by a stronger reinforcing cold front Tue night through Wed night. Gale force conditions are possible mid week over the SW Gulf behind this front. CARIBBEAN SEA... As of 21/2100 UTC, a cold front extends from Andros Island Bahamas near 25N78W to western Cuba near 23N82W through the Yucatan Channel to Merida Mexico to 19N92.5W to 17N93W. Strong N winds and building seas are expected tonight over the NW Caribbean behind the front. The winds will diminish this weekend as the front weakens and pushes into the central Caribbean. Fresh to strong winds will develop through the Windward Passage and in the lee of Cuba Sun and Sun night. Another cold front may approach the Yucatan Channel Wed night. Currently, subsidence and dry air dominate in the eastern and central Caribbean Sea. Strong trades are in the south-central Caribbean near the coast of Colombia. ATLANTIC OCEAN... As of 21/2100 UTC, a cold front over the W Atlantic extends from 31N66.5W to Andros Island near 25N78W to western Cuba near 23N82W. A pre-frontal trough is analyzed from 27N71.5W across the central Bahamas. Showers are seen along the cold front and surface trough, mainly to the east of the Bahamas. Thunderstorms are near the pre-frontal trough, mainly north of 29N and east of 69W. The cold front will continue moving SE and reach from 31N57W to the southern Bahamas on Sat, then from 31N55W to north of Hispaniola by Sun morning. Gale force N winds and seas up to 20 ft are occurring east of Florida and behind the front. These gales will continue through tonight. Large N swell associated with these gales will spread SE through the weekend while gradually decaying. Winds and seas will gradually diminish early next week before the next cold front moves off the SE U.S. coast and across the NW waters Wed and Wed night. Elsewhere across the Atlantic Ocean, a 1018 mb surface low near 32N18W is producing scattered showers in its northeast quadrant. Gale force winds are currently in the NW quadrant of this low, north of 32N. The low is expected to intensify and move southwestward during the next 24 to 36 hours. This will spread winds of near gale force across the waters from 25N-31N between 35W and the coast of Africa from late Saturday through Monday. Wave heights of 8 to 14 ft can be expected across that area Sunday into Monday. $$ Hagen