000 AXNT20 KNHC 202340 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 640 PM EST Thu Feb 20 2020 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 2320 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Gale Warnings are in effect for portions of the Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean and western Atlantic Ocean. Please read the latest High Seas Forecast issued by the National Hurricane Center under AWIPS/WMO headers MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC or at website https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml for further details on the special features mentioned below. ...GULF OF MEXICO GALE WARNING... A cold front extends from Pensacola Florida to 26N94W to the coast of Mexico just north of Tuxpan near 21N97W. Gale force winds are forecast to develop off Tampico Mexico tonight by 21/0600 and last there into Friday morning. Gales will develop offshore of Veracruz Mexico early Friday morning and persist there into Friday evening. Elsewhere across much of the western and northern Gulf of Mexico, winds near 30 kt are expected tonight through at least Friday morning behind the front. Seas of 12 to 15 ft are expected in the SW Gulf of Mexico Friday and Friday night. ...WEST ATLANTIC OCEAN GALE WARNING... A cold front extends from 33N77W to Daytona Beach Florida. The front will move SE and gain strength tonight. Near gale force winds are expected on both sides of the front through Fri night, with northerly gales likely on Friday N of 29N between 74W-80W, following the frontal passage. Sea heights of 12 to 18 feet are expected. Gale force winds will end by Friday night, but NE winds of near gale-force will continue through Saturday behind the front, to the east of the Bahamas. ...SOUTH-CENTRAL CARIBBEAN SEA GALE WARNING... Gale force winds are expected off the coast of Colombia this evening and overnight. Winds will diminish below gale force prior to sunrise Friday. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough extends from the border of Liberia and Sierra Leone near 07N11W to 04N16W. The ITCZ extends from 04N16W to 01N30W to the coast of Brazil near 03S40W. Isolated to scattered moderate convection is from 01N-05N between 09W-31W. Scattered moderate convection is from 14S-05N between 31W-53W. GULF OF MEXICO... As of 20/2100 UTC, a 1016 mb low is just E of Pensacola near 30N87W. A strong cold front extends from the low to 26N94W to the coast of Mexico just north of Tuxpan near 21N97W, then inland along the mountains of Mexico. A warm front extends E from the weak low near 30N87W to Tallahassee to Daytona Beach Florida. Scattered moderate rainshowers are over the Florida Panhandle and the Gulf waters north of 29N and east of 89W. Isolated lighter showers are elsewhere over the northern Gulf. The latest surface observations indicate 20 to 30 kt N to NE winds behind the cold front, north of 26N off the coasts of Texas and western Louisiana. The cold front will move SE across the Gulf of Mexico through Fri, then exit the basin by Fri night. Gale conditions are expected over the offshore waters off the coast of Tampico early Fri, and over the offshore waters off Veracruz Fri and Fri night. Near gale force winds are expected over the NW Gulf tonight behind the front. Strong N to NE winds and building seas are expected elsewhere behind the front. Seas will subside across the Gulf this weekend. Another cold front will move across the western Gulf Mon night through Tue night. CARIBBEAN SEA... Mid-level ridging extends across the western Caribbean. Relatively dry air covers the basin. Strong trades are over the central Caribbean. High pressure north of the area will support fresh to strong winds across the central Caribbean tonight, with winds expected to pulse to minimal gale force near the coast of Colombia tonight. Winds and seas will diminish across the southern Caribbean Fri through the weekend. A Gulf of Mexico cold front will reach the Yucatan Channel late Fri and move across the NW Caribbean through Sat night, followed by fresh to strong northerly winds. High pressure building behind the front will support fresh to strong NE winds in the Windward Passage and near Cuba Sun into Mon. ATLANTIC OCEAN... A cold front extends from a 1013 mb low near 33N77W to a weak 1015 mb low near Daytona Beach Florida. A warm front extends from the low near 33N77W to 31N72W to 32N69W. Isolated to scattered showers are seen north of 29N and west of 78W. Strong N winds are north of 30N, between the cold front and the coast of Georgia and northern Florida. The 1013 mb low near 33N77W will move NE and pull a strong cold front across the forecast waters tonight through this weekend. Near gale force winds are expected on both sides of the front through Fri night, with northerly gales likely N of 29N following the frontal passage in the vicinity of the Gulf Stream. Large N swell associated with this system will propagate southward across the waters toward the SE Bahamas and Puerto Rico through the weekend, then gradually subside early next week. Large N swell will also propagate between the Bahamas and South Florida Friday afternoon through Sat. Most of the western Atlantic west of 65W will see very large significant wave heights for a portion of the time between Friday and Sunday. Check the Offshore Forecasts for additional information. Elsewhere in the Atlantic basin, a surface trough is currently along 51W from 12N-23N. Isolated showers are within 90 nm of the trough axis from 17N-22N. Farther E, a cold front extends from 32N12W to 31N20W to 32N26W. Cloudiness and isolated showers accompany the front. $$ Hagen