000 AXNT20 KNHC 192323 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 623 PM EST Wed Feb 19 2020 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 2310 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Gale Warnings are in effect for portions of the Caribbean Sea, Gulf of Mexico and western Atlantic Ocean. Please read the latest High Seas Forecast issued by the National Hurricane Center under AWIPS/WMO headers MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC or at website https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml for further details on the three special features mentioned below. ...CARIBBEAN SEA GALE WARNING... Gale-force winds up to 40 kt are expected tonight near the coast of Colombia. Winds will be below gale force during the daylight hours on Thursday. Winds are forecast to again pulse to gale force Thursday night. The strongest winds are expected from 11N-12N between 74W-76W. Sea heights are forecast to range from 11 to 16 ft. ...ATLANTIC OCEAN GALE WARNING... A cold front extends from near Charleston South Carolina southwestward over southern Georgia to Pensacola Florida. This front will be nearly stationary tonight, but will move across the waters east of northern Florida Thursday night. Near gale to gale force winds are expected on both sides of the cold front, mainly north of 28N, as it moves across the western Atlantic, east of Florida and northeast of the northwest Bahamas, Thursday night through Friday. Expect building seas of 10 to 14 ft across the area on Friday. ...GULF OF MEXICO GALE WARNING... A stationary front currently extends from Pensacola to just south of Brownsville Texas. The front will become a cold front and begin moving on Thursday. Behind the front, gale force winds are forecast to develop by early Friday morning prior to sunrise in the far western Gulf of Mexico off the coast of Tampico Mexico. Gales will develop offshore of Veracruz Friday afternoon. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough passes through the west coast of Guinea-Bissau near 12N16W to 06N21W. The ITCZ extends from 06N21W to 03N23W to 01N28W to 00N38W to 02S42W. Scattered moderate convection is seen from 12S-04N between 22W-45W. GULF OF MEXICO... A stationary front extends from Pensacola Florida to Grand Isle Louisiana and across the northwest Gulf of Mexico to 28N94W to south of Brownsville Texas near 26N97W and inland over northern Mexico to 26N102W. Isolated showers are near the front. Much drier air covers the southern half of the Gulf of Mexico due to subsidence from a mid-level ridge that extends from the Bahamas to the Bay of Campeche. Moderate to fresh NE winds are observed to the north of the front, off the Texas and western Louisiana coasts. Reinforcing cold air will push the front across the remainder of the Gulf Thu through Fri. Gale force conditions are expected off the Tampico coast Fri morning, and the offshore waters of Veracruz Fri afternoon and evening. Strong north to northeast winds are expected elsewhere behind the front with building seas. Seas will subside Sat and Sat night. Fresh southerly flow will set up over the western Gulf Sat night through Sun night ahead of the next cold front moving off the Texas coast late Sun night. CARIBBEAN SEA... Mid- to upper-level ridging covers most of the Caribbean Sea from 67W westward, leading to subsidence and dry air. Scattered clouds and isolated showers are over portions of the Caribbean east of 67W due to an upper-level trough that extends from the central Atlantic into the far eastern Caribbean. The ASCAT pass from late Wednesday morning shows strong winds over the central Caribbean from 10N-18N between 68W-80W, with near gales over the south- central Caribbean from 10.5N-16N between 73W-78W. High pressure north of the area will support fresh to strong winds across the central Caribbean through Thu, except pulsing to gale force off the coast of Colombia tonight and Thu night. Winds and seas will then diminish across the Caribbean through Fri night. A front in the Gulf of Mexico will reach the Yucatan Channel Fri night, and move across the NW Caribbean through Sat night. Fresh to strong N winds will follow the front and affect the NW Caribbean during that period. ATLANTIC OCEAN... A surface trough extends from 32N75W to 30N80W. Scattered showers are north of 30N between 67W-77W. The ASCAT pass from Wednesday morning shows strong trade winds from 10N-25N between 25W-66W, and from 18N-32N between 05W-25W. An upper-level trough axis is from 31N53W to 25N57W to 18N60W. Relatively dry air in the low to mid levels is limiting significant shower activity in association with the upper-level trough. High pressure north of the area will support fresh to strong winds near the Windward Passage through tonight. A cold front will move offshore of Georgia tonight, then become stationary off NE Florida through Thu. Reinforcing cold air will push a strong cold front across the forecast area Thu night through Sat night. Near gale to gale force winds are expected on both sides of the front on Fri and Fri night, mainly north of 28N, over the western Atlantic. Winds will gradually diminish across the region through early Sun. Large seas over the waters north and northeast of the Bahamas will decay Mon. $$ Hagen