000 AXNT20 KNHC 191758 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1257 PM EST Wed Feb 19 2020 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1740 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... ...CARIBBEAN SEA GALE WARNING... The current situation in the Caribbean Sea consists of: NE-to-E gale-force winds, and sea heights ranging from 11 feet to 17 feet, from 11N to 13N between 73W and 78W. The gale-force winds will slow down, to less than gale-force, in 6 hours or so. The gale- force winds will return tonight. Please read the latest HIGH SEAS FORECAST: MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC, the latest OFFSHORE FORECAST: MIAOFFNT3/FZNT23 KNHC, or go to the website https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml, from the NWS National Hurricane Center, for more details. ...ATLANTIC OCEAN GALE WARNING... The 42-hour forecast, starting at 19/1200 UTC, consists of a forecast cold front from 31N76W to 28N78W to 26N80W. Expect: N OF 26N W OF FRONT W TO NW WINDS 20 TO 25 KT...EXCEPT N 25 TO 30 KT WITH FREQUENT GUSTS TO 35 KT N OF 30N E OF 78W. SEAS 8 TO 12 FT...EXCEPT 10 TO 14 FT N OF 30N E OF 78W. Please read the latest HIGH SEAS FORECAST: MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC, the latest OFFSHORE FORECAST: MIAOFFNT3/FZNT23 KNHC, or go to the website https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml, from the NWS National Hurricane Center, for more details. ...GULF OF MEXICO GALE WARNING... The 36-hour forecast, starting at 19/1200 UTC, consists of forecast cold front from 29N83W to 24N92W to 24N97W. Expect: NW OF FRONT NE WINDS 20 TO 30 KT WITH FREQUENT GUSTS TO 35 KT. SEAS 8 TO 12 FT. Please read the latest HIGH SEAS FORECAST: MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC, the latest OFFSHORE FORECAST: MIAOFFNT4/FZNT24 KNHC, or go to the website https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml, from the NWS National Hurricane Center, for more details. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough is along 05N, passing through the Prime Meridian along 05N, through the southern sections of Liberia, to 05N10W. The ITCZ continues from 05N10W, to 05N17W, 03N24W, to 01N28W, 01N31W, crossing the Equator along 37W, to 01S43W. Precipitation: scattered moderate to isolated strong is within 75 nm to the north of the monsoon trough between 01W and 07W in parts of Africa. Isolated moderate to locally strong is elsewhere from 05N southward from 50W eastward. Precipitation: broken to overcast multilayered clouds, and possible rainshowers, are to the north of the line that runs from 24N85W to 27N86W to 25N90W to the NW corner of the Yucatan Peninsula. GULF OF MEXICO... A cold front is moving through the Gulf of Mexico. It is passing through the Florida Panhandle, across SE Louisiana, to the southernmost point of Texas at the coast. near 29N92W to S Texas near 27N97W. Scattered showers are within 60 nm of the front. 20 kt N winds are N of the front. 5-15 kt SE winds are over the remainder of the Gulf. Elsewhere, radar imagery shows scattered showers along the coast of central Florida near Tampa from 26N-29N between 82W-84W. The current cold front will move southeastward, slowly, through tonight. Reinforcing cold air then will push the front across the remainder of the Gulf of Mexico, quickly, from Thursday through Friday. Gale-force wind conditions are possible in the offshore waters of Tampico Mexico on Friday morning, and in the far SW Gulf of Mexico and the offshore waters of Veracruz Mexico on Friday evening. Expect strong north to northeast winds elsewhere behind the front, and building seas, through Friday night. The sea heights will subside on Saturday and Saturday night. Fresh southerly wind flow will set up in the western Gulf of Mexico, from Saturday night through Sunday night. This will be happening in advance of the next cold front, that is expected in the far NW Gulf on Sunday night. CARIBBEAN SEA... Scattered to broken low level clouds and possible rainshowers, in trade wind flow, span the Caribbean Sea. 24-hour rainfall totals that are listed for the period that ended at 13/0000 UTC, according to the PAN AMERICAN TEMPERATURE AND PRECIPITATION TABLES, MIATPTPAN/SXCA01 KNHC, are: 0.24 in San Juan in Puerto Rico; 0.14 in Guadeloupe; 0.11 in Trinidad; 0.08 in St. Thomas in the Virgin Islands; 0.02 in Curacao; and a trace, in Nassau in the Bahamas. The current wind situation in the Caribbean Sea consists of: NE- to-E gale-force winds, and sea heights ranging from 11 feet to 17 feet, from 11N to 13N between 73W and 78W. The gale-force winds will slow down, to less than gale-force, in 6 hours or so. The gale- force winds will return tonight. Please read the latest HIGH SEAS FORECAST: MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC, the latest OFFSHORE FORECAST: MIAOFFNT3/FZNT23 KNHC, or go to the website https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml, from the NWS National Hurricane Center, for more details. High pressure to the north of the area will support fresh to strong winds in the central Caribbean Sea, through Thursday. The wind speeds will be pulsing to gale-force off the coast of Colombia, tonight and on Thursday night. The wind speeds and the sea heights will diminish in the Caribbean Sea, and in the Tropical N Atlantic Ocean, from Thursday through Friday night. A cold front that is in the Gulf of Mexico will reach the Yucatan Channel on Friday night, and move across the NW Caribbean Sea through Saturday night. ATLANTIC OCEAN... An upper level trough extends from a cyclonic circulation center that is near 33N09W along the coast of Morocco, to the Canary Islands, to a 29N34W cyclonic circulation center, to 24N37W. A separate upper level trough is along 20N26W, to 15N40W, to 12N50W, to 09N59W. Precipitation: isolated moderate from 17N to 30N between 44W and 58W. High pressure to the north of the area will support fresh to strong winds near the Windward Passage through tonight. A cold front will move into the northwest waters today, and then become stationary near 30N through Thursday. Reinforcing cold air will push a strong cold front across the forecast area from Thursday night through Saturday. Near gale to gale-force winds are expected on both sides of the front on Friday. The wind speeds will diminish gradually across the region from Saturday through Sunday. Large seas, producing potentially hazardous conditions, are expected in the waters that are to the north and northeast of the Bahamas, from Friday through early on Sunday. The seas will subside slowly, thereafter through Sunday night. $$ MT