000 AXNT20 KNHC 190526 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1226 AM EST Wed Feb 19 2020 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0515 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... ...Caribbean Sea Gale Warning... The combination of high pressure over the subtropical Atlantic and relatively low pressure over northern South America is expected to produce strong winds near the coast of Colombia during the next couple of days. The winds are expected to be strongest and reach gale force at night with sea heights forecast to peak as high as 19 ft Wed. Low pres developing off the SE coast of the United States will weaken the ridge over the western Atlc enough to allow the gales to abate by Fri night. Please read the latest High Seas Forecast, under AWIPS/WMO headers MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC, or visit our website at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml for more details. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough extends from the coast of Guinea near 10N14W to 06N17W. The ITCZ continues from 06N17W to 00N28W to the coast of Brazil near 03S40W. Widely scattered moderate convection is within 300 nm either side of the ITCZ. GULF OF MEXICO... Fair and mild weather conditions prevail across the entire Gulf of Mexico supported by deep-layer ridging and subsidence overhead. The only notable hazard is areas of dense fog within 30 nm of the coast from Pensacola Florida westward. The fog is expected to mix out by Wed afternoon as a cold front moves into the northern Gulf. Surface winds are generally light to moderate from the SE, strongest over Bay of Campeche. Seas are generally in the 3 to 5 ft range, except for the NE waters where seas are running 1 to 3 ft. A cold front will enter the NW Gulf tonight and slowly move southward through Wed night. A reinforcing cold front will then help push the front quickly across the remainder of the Gulf Thu through Fri. Gale force conditions are possible over the offshore waters of Tampico Fri morning, and Veracruz Fri afternoon into Fri night. Expect strong to near gale force N-NE winds elsewhere behind the front and building seas through early Sat. CARIBBEAN SEA... A gale warning is currently in effect for portions of the south- central Caribbean Sea. For details on this hazard, see the warning section above. Otherwise, moderate to strong trade-wind flow continues across much of the region today. Visible satellite images show patches of low-level clouds and isolated shallow showers moving within the trade wind flow across the bulk of the area. However, the showers are expected to be light and short- lived as abundant dry air lies in the mid and upper levels of the atmosphere. Seas are high near the coast of Colombia, up to 18 ft with sea conditions notably less hazardous over the NW Caribbean sea. High pressure north of the area will support fresh to near-gale force winds across the central Caribbean through Thu, pulsing to gale force off the coast of Colombia at night. A cold front moving N of the area Thu evening through Sun will reduce the pressure gradient in the region and diminish the wind speeds to fresh to strong through Fri evening and gentle to fresh the remainder of the weekend. Fresh to locally strong winds and long- period NE swell are expected across the Tropical N Atlantic waters through Wed evening. The swell will subside early on Fri. ATLANTIC OCEAN... Surface high pressure ridges WSW from a 1038 mb high centered just E of the Azores near 40N17W to the E coast of Florida. Subsidence and dry air aloft dominate the subtropical and tropical Atlantic basin this evening, resulting in fair weather across the majority of the area. The only exception is over the central Atlantic, where an upper-level trough extending S from 32N57W to 20N57W is supporting patchy cloudiness and isolated showers north of 20N between 45W and 58W. Seas are highest over the central and eastern Atlantic in long period N swell. High pressure N of the area will support fresh to strong winds in the approaches of the Windward Passage through early Thu. A cold front will move off the SE U.S. coast Wed morning and briefly stall over waters north of 28N Wed night and Thu. A reinforcing cold front will enter the NW forecast waters Thu evening. Fresh to near gale force winds are expected ahead and behind the front N of the Bahamas through Sat. Winds will gradually diminish afterwards through Sun night. Large NE swell is expected to impact much of the area Thu night through Sun. $$ Formosa