000 AXNT20 KNHC 182336 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 635 PM EST Tue Feb 18 2020 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 2300 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... ...Caribbean Sea Gale Warning... The combination of high pressure over the subtropical Atlantic and relatively low pressure over northern South America is expected to produce strong winds near the coast of Colombia during the next couple of days. The winds are expected to be strongest and reach gale force at night with sea heights forecast to peak as high as 19 ft Wed. Low pres developing off the SE coast of the United States will weaken the ridge over the western Atlc enough to allow the gales to abate by Fri night. Please read the latest High Seas Forecast, under AWIPS/WMO headers MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC, or visit our website at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml for more details. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough extends from the coast of Sierra Leone near 07N12W to 03N20W. The ITCZ continues from 03N20W to 00N32W to the coast of Brazil near 01S47W. Scattered moderate and isolated strong convection is present within 150 nm either side of a line from 07S24W to 02N46W. GULF OF MEXICO... Fair and mild weather conditions prevail across the entire Gulf of Mexico today supported by deep-layer ridging and subsidence overhead. The only notable hazard today is areas of dense fog within 30 nm of the coast from Pensacola Florida westward. The fog is expected to mix out by Wed afternoon as a cold front moves into the northern Gulf. Surface winds are generally light to moderate from the SE, strongest over Bay of Campeche. Seas are generally in the 3 to 5 ft range, except for the NE waters where seas are running 1 to 3 ft. Wind and sea conditions are expected to deteriorate as a cold front enters the NW Gulf tonight, then slowly sinks southward through Wed night. A reinforcing cold front will then help push the front quickly across the remainder of the Gulf Thu through Fri. Gale force conditions are possible west of the reinforcing front offshore of Tampico, Mexico early Fri morning, and Veracruz, Mexico later in the day Fri and Fri night. Elsewhere, expect strengthening NE winds and building seas across the region following the second cold front. Winds and seas over the basin will abate as a high pres ridge builds S over the Gulf in the wake of the fronts. CARIBBEAN SEA... A gale warning is currently in effect for portions of the south- central Caribbean Sea. For details on this hazard, see the warning section above. Otherwise, moderate to strong trade-wind flow continues across much of the region today. Visible satellite images show patches of low-level clouds and isolated shallow showers moving within the trade wind flow across the bulk of the area. However, the showers are expected to be light and short- lived as abundant dry air lies in the mid and upper levels of the atmosphere. Seas are quite high near the coast of Colombia, up to 18 ft as of earlier today, with sea conditions notably less hazardous over the NW Caribbean sea. High pressure north of the area will support fresh to strong trades across the central Caribbean through Thu night, pulsing to gale force off the coast of Colombia each night. High pressure will begin to weaken N of the area Thu night, helping to diminish winds Fri and Sat. ATLANTIC OCEAN... Surface high pressure ridges WSW from a 1038 mb high centered just E of the Azores near 40N20W to the E cast of Florida. Subsidence and dry air aloft dominate the subtropical and tropical Atlantic basin this evening, resulting in fair weather across the majority of the area. The only exception is over the central Atlantic, where an upper-level trough extending SSW from 32N58W to 18N64W is supporting patchy cloudiness and isolated showers north of 18N between 52W and 62W. Seas are highest over the central and eastern Atlantic in long period N swell. The high pressure extending WSW from the Azores high will shift eastward ahead of a cold front moving off the SE U.S. coast Wed. The front will briefly stall Wed night and Thu as a mid to upper- level trough approaches from the W. The mid to upper-level trough will trigger development of low pres along the front E of Georgia and the Carolinas Thu night. The developing low will then drag the cold front SE across the SE Bahamas and into the central Atlantic by Sat night. Gale conditions are possible west of the front across the northern waters Thu night and Fri, with large N to NE swell expected to impact the area W of a line from 32N53W to 26N76W by Fri night. $$ McElroy