000 AXNT20 KNHC 181727 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1227 PM EST Tue Feb 18 2020 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1700 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... ...Caribbean Sea Gale Warning... The combination of high pressure over the subtropical Atlantic and low pressure over northern South America is expected to produce strong winds near the coast of Colombia during the next couple of days. The winds are expected to be strongest and reach gale force at night with seas heights forecast to reach as high as 15 ft. Please read the latest High Seas Forecast, under AWIPS/WMO headers MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC, or visit our website at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml for more details. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough extends from the coast of Liberia near 07N12W to 04N19W. The ITCZ continues from 04N19W to 00N30W to the coast of Brazil near 01S45W. Scattered moderate convection is within 150 n mi north of the ITCZ between 26W and 30W. Similar convection is within 90 n mi either side of the ITCZ between 40W and 45W. GULF OF MEXICO... Fair and mild weather conditions prevail across the entire Gulf of Mexico today supported by dry air in the mid- and upper-levels of the atmosphere and the western extention of the Atlantic subtropical ridge. The only notable hazard today is areas of fog over the far northwestern waters. The surface winds are generally southeasterly to southerly and mostly in the 10-20 kt range, strongest over the western waters. Seas are generally in the 3-5 ft. range, except over the northeast waters where they are 1-3 ft. Conditions are expected to deteoriate as a cold front will enter the NW Gulf tonight and slowly move southward through Wed night. A reinforcing cold front will then help push the front quickly across the remainder of the Gulf Thu through Fri. Gale force conditions are possible west of this front offshore of Tampico, Mexico early Fri morning, and Veracruz, Mexico later in the day Fri into Fri night. Elsewhere, expect strengthening NE winds and building seas across the region following the second cold front. CARIBBEAN SEA... A gale warning is currently in effect for portions of the south- central Caribbean Sea. For details on this hazard, see the warning section above. Otherwise, moderate to strong trade wind flow exists across much of the region today. Visible satellite images show patches of low-level clouds and likely embedded scattered showers moving within the trade wind flow across the bulk of the area. However, the showers are expected to be light and short-lived as abundant dry air lies in the mid- and upper- levels of the atmopshere. Seas are quite high near the coast of Colombia, up to 18 ft as of earlier today, with sea conditions notably less hazardous over the northwestern Caribbean sea. High pressure north of the area will support fresh to strong trades across the central Caribbean through Thu night, pulsing to gale force off the coast of Colombia each night. High pressure will weaken north of the area Thu night, helping to diminish winds Fri and Sat. ATLANTIC OCEAN... Surface high pressure and dry air aloft dominate the subtropical and tropical Atlantic basin today, resulting in fair weather across the majority of the area. The only exception is over a portion of the central Atlantic, where satellite images show deep-layer cloudiness and likely some showers north of 24N between 52W and 60W associated with a weak trough and dissipating frontal boundary. Seas are highest over the central and eastern Atlantic in northerly swell. High pressure along 30N will shift eastward mid-week ahead of a cold front moving off the SE U.S. coast Wed. The front will briefly stall Wed night and Thu, before a reinforcing cold front pushes it southward across the central adn western Atlantic Thu night through Sat night. Gale conditions are possible west of the front across the northern waters Thu night and Fri, with large N to E swell expected to impact much of the area by Fri night. $$ Cangialosi