000 AXNT20 KNHC 181056 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 556 AM EST Tue Feb 18 2020 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1045 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... ...Caribbean Sea Gale Warning... Gale force winds are expected near the coast of Colombia at night during the next couple of nights, with winds to near gale force during the day. Sea heights will reach as high as 17 ft. Please read the latest High Seas Forecast, under AWIPS/WMO headers MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC, or see the website https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml for more details. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough extends from the coast of Liberia near 07N11W to 03N19W. The ITCZ continues from 03N19W to 00N30W to the coast of Brazil near 03S41W. Isolated moderate convection is from 03N- 04N between 20W-48W. GULF OF MEXICO... At 18/0900 UTC, a stationary front is over N Florida from 31N80W to 29N83W to 31N87W. Radar imagery shows scattered showers over the NE Gulf of Mexico N of 29N and E of 90W. Fair weather is over the S Gulf, S of 26N. 10-20 kt SE return flow is over the Gulf with strongest winds over the W Gulf, and weakest winds over the NE Gulf. A cold front will enter the NW Gulf Tue night and slowly move southward through Wed night. A reinforcing cold front will then help push the front quickly across the remainder of the Gulf Thu through Fri. Gale force conditions are possible west of this front offshore of Tampico, Mexico Thu night, and Veracruz, Mexico Fri into Fri night. Elsewhere, expect strengthening NE winds and building seas across the Gulf following the second cold front. CARIBBEAN SEA... A gale is along the coast of N Colombia. See above. 10-30 kt tradewinds are over the remainder of the Caribbean Sea with weakest winds over the Yucatan Channel. Scattered showers are over the Caribbean S of 20N, moving W. In the upper levels, a ridge is over the Caribbean with axis along 81W. Strong subsidence covers the entire area suppressing deep convection. High pressure north of the area will support fresh to strong trades across the central Caribbean through Thu night, pulsing to gale force off the coast of Colombia each night. High pressure will weaken north of the area Thu night, helping to diminish winds Fri and Sat. Long-period N to NE swell will move across the Tropical N Atlantic waters through Thu, then subside Fri and Fri night. ATLANTIC OCEAN... A stationary front enters the NW Atlantic near 31N80W. The tail end of another stationary front enters the NW Atlantic near 31N61W and extends to 27N69W. A 1039 mb high is centered over the Azores near 40N25W. Of note in the upper levels, an upper level low is centered near the Canary Islands at 26N15W producing scattered showers. Low pressure between the Carolinas and Bermuda will shift north later today as high pressure briefly builds across the area. The area of high pressure will then shift eastward mid-week enabling a cold front to move off the SE U.S. coast on Wed. This front will briefly stall over N waters Wed night and Thu, before a reinforcing cold front pushes it southward across the region Thu night through Sat night. Gale conditions are possible west of the front across the northern waters Thu night and Fri, with large N to E swell expected to impact much of the area by Fri night. $$ Formosa