000 AXNT20 KNHC 162351 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 651 PM EST Sun Feb 16 2020 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 2320 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... ...Caribbean Sea Gale Warning... Gale force winds are expected near the coast of Colombia at night during the next couple of nights, with winds to near gale force during the day. The latest ASCAT pass from 16/1420 UTC shows near gale force winds near the coast of Colombia from 10.5N-12.5N between 74W-77W. Sea heights will range from 8 to 13 ft. Please read the latest High Seas Forecast, under AWIPS/WMO headers MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC, or see the website https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml for more details. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough passes through coastal Liberia near 06N10W to 03N14W. The ITCZ extends from 03N14W to 01S26W to the coast of Brazil near 03S40W. Scattered moderate convection is from 07S- 03N between 12W-32W. GULF OF MEXICO... At 16/2100 UTC, a 1015 mb low was located off the SE Louisiana coast near 30N89W. A stationary front extends east of the low to the west coast of Florida near 30N83W. A cold front extends southwest of the low to 27N96W with a trough extending from that point to the coast of Texas near 27N97W. Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms are seen along the stationary front in the NE Gulf, N of 28N and E of 88W. Broken clouds and isolated showers are seen from 23N-30N between 84W-97W. A trough is in the western Bay of Campeche from 24N97W top 19N95W. The latest scatterometer data and surface observations depict gentle winds across most of the basin, with moderate winds in the NE Gulf. Seas range from 2 to 5 ft. A cold front over NW Gulf will stall over the northern waters tonight then lift northward on Mon. The next cold front is forecast to enter the NW Gulf Tue night, then move slowly across the Gulf region Wed through Thu. Reinforcing cold air will push the cold front across the Gulf waters late Thu into Fri. Gale force conditions are possible west of the front offshore of Tampico, Mexico late Thu night, and offshore of Veracruz, Mexico on Fri. CARIBBEAN SEA... Mid- to upper-level cyclonic flow over the far eastern Caribbean Sea continues to weaken. Scattered showers linger across the Leeward Islands and Virgin Islands, as well as the waters to the south and southeast of Puerto Rico. Comparatively drier air is seen over the central and western portions of the basin. The latest ASCAT pass from 16/1420 UTC shows strong trades south of 16N between 71W-78W, with near gale- force winds near the coast of Colombia from 10.5N-12.5N between 74W-77W. Gentle to moderate trades are noted across the NW and eastern Caribbean. Seas near Colombia are up to 9 ft with 3-5 ft elsewhere. High pressure north of the area will maintain fresh to strong trade winds elsewhere across the central Caribbean through Fri night. Winds will pulse to gale force off the coast of Colombia each night through Thu night. N to NE swell will move across the Tropical N Atlantic waters Mon night through Thu before stating to subside Fri. ATLANTIC OCEAN... A 1018 mb low is located near 31N61W with a stationary front extending southwest from it to 26N73W. A shear line extends westward from that point to near the Florida Keys near 25N80W. Showers are seen along the front. Two troughs are analyzed in the west-central Atlantic: one from 28N55W to 21N62W, and the other from 26N46W to 22N49W. Broken clouds and isolated showers are associated with both of these features. High pressure dominates the rest of the Atlantic. Moderate to fresh winds are seen on the north side of the stationary front/shear line with seas up to 8 ft. A cold front will briefly reach the NW waters tonight into Mon, the move N of the area by Mon night. The next cold front will move off the SE U.S. coast on Wed and stall over the northern waters on Thu. Reinforcing cold air will push the front southward Thu night into Fri. Gale conditions are possible W of the front across the north waters Thu night and Fri. $$ AKR