000 AXNT20 KNHC 161711 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1211 PM EST Sun Feb 16 2020 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1650 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... ...Caribbean Sea Gale Warning... Gale force winds are expected near the coast of Colombia at night during the next couple of nights, with winds to near gale force during the day. The latest ASCAT pass from 16/1420 UTC shows near gale force winds near the coast of Colombia from 10.5N-12.5N between 74W-77W. Sea heights will range from 10 to 14 ft. Please read the latest High Seas Forecast, under AWIPS/WMO headers MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC, or see the website https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml for more details. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough passes through coastal Liberia near 06N11W to 03N14W. The ITCZ extends from 03N14W to 02S28W to the coast of Brazil near 03S40W. Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is from 07S-01S between 20W-34W. GULF OF MEXICO... At 16/1500 UTC, a 1017 mb surface low is over southeast Louisiana near 29.5N91W. A cold front has formed and extends from the low to 28N92W to 27N95W. A surface trough continues to 24N98W. A stationary front extends E from the low to the Florida Big Bend near 30N84W. Scattered to numerous moderate convection is seen over the northern Gulf north of 28N between 87W-91W, including the Gulf Coast from Pensacola to just east of New Orleans. Scattered showers and isolated tstorms are elsewhere north of 27N between 84W-93W. Isolated showers are near the surface trough off the lower Texas coast. Elsewhere, a surface trough is over the Bay of Campeche along 94W from 18N-22N. Broken clouds and isolated showers are west of the trough. Clearing skies are seen over the eastern Bay of Campeche due to mid-level anticyclonic flow over the area. In the southeastern Gulf of Mexico, a shear line extends from the Florida Keys to 23N86W as of 16/1500 UTC. Scattered showers are within 15 nm either side of the shear line. The shear line from the Florida Keys to 23N86W will gradually dissipate this afternoon and tonight. The cold front over the NW Gulf will stall over the northern Gulf waters tonight then lift northward on Mon. The next cold front is forecast to enter the NW Gulf Tue night, then move slowly across the Gulf region Wed through Thu. Reinforcing cold air will push the cold front across the Gulf waters late Thu into Fri. Gale force conditions are possible west of the front offshore of Tampico, Mexico late Thu night, and offshore of Veracruz, Mexico on Fri. CARIBBEAN SEA... Mid- to upper-level cyclonic flow over the far eastern Caribbean Sea has weakened since yesterday. Scattered showers continue to linger over the Leeward Islands and Virgin Islands, as well as the waters to the south and southeast of Puerto Rico. Comparatively drier air is seen over the central and western portions of the basin. The latest ASCAT pass from 16/1420 UTC shows strong trades south of 16N between 71W-78W, with near gale-force winds near the coast of Colombia from 10.5N-12.5N between 74W-77W. Gale force winds will continue pulsing each night off the coast of Colombia through Thu night. High pressure north of the area will maintain fresh to strong trade winds elsewhere across the central Caribbean through Thu night. ATLANTIC OCEAN... A stationary front extends from 32N57W to 29N63W to 26.5N73W, then continues as a dissipating stationary front to 26N78W. A shear line extends from 26N78W to 23N86W. Scattered showers are along and within 120 nm north of the stationary front. Scattered showers are within 15 nm either side of the shear line. The latest ASCAT pass shows fresh NE to E winds within 180 nm north of the stationary front and shear line. The stationary front will gradually dissipate through tonight. A weak cold front will briefly reach the waters off NE Florida tonight into Mon, then move N of the area by Mon night. The next significant cold front will move off the SE U.S. coast on Wed and stall over the northern waters on Thu. Reinforcing cold air will push the front southward Thu night into Fri. Gale conditions are possible W of the front, to the east of Florida, and well north of the Bahamas, Thu night and Fri. Farther east, two NE-SW oriented surface troughs currently extend from 27N54W to 21N60W and from 26N44W to 21N48W, respectively. Isolated showers are within 60 nm of both trough axes. Upper- level troughing to the east of the Lesser Antilles is producing scattered showers from 10N-21N between 49W-59W. The GOES-16 RGB Geocolor product shows dusty Saharan Air over the eastern Atlantic from 14N-30N between 20W-40W. Fresh to locally strong trade winds are over the tropical Atlantic from 07N-20N between 30W-62W. Looking ahead, large N swell will move across the tropical Atlantic between 20W-60W Mon through Thu. The swell will affect Atlantic facing shores of the Leeward and Windward Islands. For the waters near the Canary Islands and offshore of Western Sahara, expect NE winds to increase to near gale-force on Tuesday. $$ Hagen