000 AXNT20 KNHC 161141 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 641 AM EST Sun Feb 16 2020 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1145 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... ...Caribbean Sea Gale Warning... Gale force winds are expected near the coast of Colombia at night during the next couple of nights, with winds to near gale force during the day. The strongest winds are expected from 10N to 13N between 74W-78W. Sea heights will range from 8 to 13 ft. Please read the latest High Seas Forecast, under AWIPS/WMO headers MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC, or see the website https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml for more details. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough passes through southern Liberia near 04N08W to 02N12W. The ITCZ extends from 02N12W to the coast of Brazil near 03S39W. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection is near the ITCZ from 06S-00N between 21W-34W. GULF OF MEXICO... At 16/0900 UTC, a stationary front has diminish across the basin. A trough extends across the Bay of Campeche from 19N93W to 23N96W with a few showers in the vicinity. Another trough is analyzed from 25N83W to 29N85W with nearby showers. Showers are also noted moving across the northwest Gulf in SW Louisiana with cloudiness prevailing in low ceilings and areas of fog west of 89W across most of the western Gulf. The latest scatterometer data and surface observations depict moderate east-southeast winds with seas ranging 4 to 7 ft across the basin. A stationary front over the Florida Straits will dissipate early this morning. Another front may develop over the northern Gulf later today and stall into early next week. The next cold front will move into the NW Gulf Tue night, then move across the Gulf Wed through Thu night. Gale force conditions are possible west of the front offshore of Tampico, Mexico Thu night. CARIBBEAN SEA... A large upper-level low continues to linger over the NE Caribbean near 16N65W. Showers are seen moving across the eastern Leeward Islands, the Lesser Antilles the eastern half of the Greater Antilles. Comparatively drier air in subsidence is evident in water vapor imagery over the remainder of the Caribbean to the west of 71W. This is due to strong mid-level ridging over the western Caribbean. Surface observations show gentle to moderate trades across the basin with seas ranging from 6 to 9 ft in the central and eastern Caribbean. Gale force winds will continue pulsing each night off the coast of Colombia. High pressure north of the area will maintain fresh to strong trade winds elsewhere across the central Caribbean through Thu night. Large N to NE swell will move across the Tropical N Atlantic waters Mon night through Thu. ATLANTIC OCEAN... The cold front stretches from 29N61W to 25N73W, then stalls from 25N73W to the northern Bahamas near 24N77W. Showers are seen along the boundary. ASCAT shows fresh to strong Northeast winds behind the front from 26N-31N between 61W-80W. Ahead of the front, a trough is analyzed from 22N70W to 26N63W. Seas are up to 12 ft near the boundary. Another trough in the central Atlantic is analyzed near 20N47W to 25N41W. High pressure dominates the central and eastern Atlantic with a 1026 mb high near 29N37W. As an upper level trough digs across NW Africa, a surface trough is north of the Cabo Verde Islands from 15N26W to 26N29W. Scattered showers are moving across these islands to NW Africa from Guinea- Bissau to Western Sahara. Showers associated with a large upper- level low is seen east of the Lesser Antilles from 10N-20N between 51W-61W. Fresh to locally strong trades cover the tropical Atlantic from 05N-20N between 36W-62W. A cold front extends from near 28N65W to 26N73W, then becomes stationary through the Florida Straits. This front will gradually dissipate through tonight. A weak low pressure trough will develop off the Florida coast later today, then lift NE through early next week. The next cold front will move off the SE U.S. coast on Wed and cross the northern waters Thu and Thu night. Gale conditions are possible N of 29N west of the front Thu night. $$ MMT