000 AXNT20 KNHC 151102 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 601 AM EST Sat Feb 15 2020 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1040 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... ...Caribbean Sea Gale Warning... The current forecast, starting at 15/0600 UTC, consists of: NE-to-E gale-force winds, and sea heights ranging from 11 feet to 15 feet, from 10.5N to 13N between 74W and 78W. The gale-force winds are forecast to continue for the next 6 hours or so. The overall forecast is for the wind speeds to be pulsing to gale- force during the evening and early morning hours, for the next few days. Please read the latest High Seas Forecast, under AWIPS/WMO headers MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC, the latest Offshore Waters Forecast, under MIAOFFNT3/FZNT23 KNHC, or go to the website https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml, for more details. ...Western Atlantic Ocean Gale Warning... A cold front passes through 32N65W just to the east of Bermuda, to 30N70W, across the NW Bahamas, to south Florida near 25N81W, and into the Gulf of Mexico near 25N85W. The 6-hour forecast, starting at 15/0600 UTC, consists of: N-to-NE gale-force winds, and sea heights ranging from 9 feet to 14 feet, from 30N to 31N between 72W and 75W. The gale-force winds are expected to last for 12 hours or so. Please read the latest High Seas Forecast, under the AWIPS/WMO headers MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC, the latest Offshore Waters Forecast under MIAOFFNT3/FZNT23 KNHC, or go to the website https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml, for more details. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough passes through Nigeria near 06N04E, along the southern coast of the Ivory Coast, through southern sections of Liberia, to 04N12W. A surface trough is along 03N16W to the Equator along 22W. One part of the ITCZ is along 02N10W, crossing the Equator along 13W, to 03S20W and 03S26W. Another part of the ITCZ is along 02S27W 02S30W 03S33W 03S36W. Precipitation: widely scattered moderate to isolated strong from 04N to 02S between 18W and 31W. Isolated moderate to locally strong from 01N to 05S between the Prime Meridian and 20W. Isolated moderate is elsewhere from 06N southward from South America eastward. GULF OF MEXICO... A cold front passes across the NW Bahamas, to south Florida near 25N81W, and into the Gulf of Mexico near 25N85W. The front becomes stationary near 25N85W, and it curves to 23N90W, and to 18.5N92W in the SW corner of the Gulf of Mexico. Precipitation: broken to overcast multilayered clouds and isolated moderate, nearly everywhere in the Gulf of Mexico, except in the area that is from 28N northward from 90W eastward. The current stationary front will dissipate later today, in the far SE Gulf. High pressure will build in the wake of this front, and prevail through early next week. The next cold front will move into the NW Gulf of Mexico on Tuesday night. CARIBBEAN SEA... A middle level to upper level cyclonic circulation center is near 17N65W. Cyclonic wind flow covers the Caribbean Sea, parts of South America, and parts of the Atlantic Ocean from 06N to 24N between 55W and 72W. Comparatively drier air in subsidence is apparent in water vapor imagery, everywhere in the Caribbean Sea, on the western side of the cyclonic circulation center, and from 300 nm to 600 nm to the north of the center. Precipitation: isolated moderate is within 440 nm of the center in the NE quadrant. Rainshowers are possible elsewhere, from 07N to 20N between 50W and 67W, in parts of the Caribbean Sea and the Atlantic Ocean. Rainshowers are possible, in areas of broken low level clouds, with the trade wind flow. 24-hour rainfall totals that are listed for the period that ended at 15/0000 UTC, according to the PAN AMERICAN TEMPERATURE AND PRECIPITATION TABLES, MIATPTPAN/SXCA01 KNHC, are: 0.11 in Curacao, and 0.09 in Guadeloupe. High pressure to the north of the area will maintain strong trade winds across the central Caribbean Sea through Wednesday. The wind speeds will pulse to gale-force each night off the coast of Colombia. The trade winds in the tropical Atlantic Ocean will diminish slowly through tonight. ATLANTIC OCEAN... A cold front passes through 32N65W just to the east of Bermuda, to 30N70W, across the NW Bahamas, to south Florida near 25N81W, and into the Gulf of Mexico near 25N85W. Precipitation: broken to overcast multilayered clouds and isolated moderate are within 60 nm to the E and SE of the cold front, and within 270 nm to the NW of the cold front. A surface trough is along 70W/71W, from the Dominican Republic at 20N, to 25N. Rainshowers are possible, in trade wind flow, moving near and around the trough. No significant deep convective precipitation is apparent in satellite imagery, just with the surface trough by itself. An upper level trough extends from a 30N17W cyclonic circulation center, to a 23N25W cyclonic circulation center, to 18N30W, to 16N40W. Comparatively drier air in subsidence is apparent in water vapor imagery, from 16N to 25W between 25W and 50W. A surface trough is along 08N16W 17N18W 23N19W. No significant deep convective precipitation is apparent in satellite imagery. The current cold front will move eastward, across the northern waters of the forecast areas, through tonight. The front will stall, and then dissipate, to the east of the central Bahamas on Sunday. Gale-force wind conditions are expected well to the NE of the Bahamas today, lasting for about 12 hours today. High pressure will build across the region on Monday and Tuesday. The next cold front will move into the NW waters in the middle of next week. $$ MT