988 AXNT20 KNHC 141732 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1232 PM EST Fri Feb 14 2020 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1720 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... ...Caribbean Gale Warning... High pressure north of the area will remain in place and maintain strong trades across the central Caribbean through the forecast period, except for gale force winds pulsing each night off the Colombian coast. A recent altimeter pass and buoy observations showed a large area of seas between 8 and 11 ft covering the eastern and central Caribbean. Please read the latest High Seas Forecast product, under AWIPS/WMO headers MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC, the latest Offshore Waters Forecast product under MIAOFFNT3/FZNT23 KNHC, or go to the website https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml, for more details. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The western terminus of the monsoon trough reaches the coast of Liberia near 05N08W. The ITCZ extends from 04S17W to 01S31W to the coast of Brazil near 01S47W. Scattered moderate and isolated strong convection is noted within an area from 06S-04N between 12W-46W. GULF OF MEXICO... At 14/1500 UTC, a cold front extended south of Tampa Bay, Florida near 31N76W to 26N87W. The front stalls from 26N87W to 23N92W to the coast of Mexico near 19N93W. A pre-frontal trough is along the front from 27N83W to 25N89W. A trough is also seen in the Bay of Campeche from 23N90W to 19N92W. Showers are noted along the front. High pressure is building in the western Gulf. The latest scatterometer data depicts moderate to fresh NNE winds behind the front with light to gentle winds ahead of the boundary. Moderate winds are noted in the NW Gulf. The cold front will continue to stall today. The front will dissipate by Sat over the far SE Gulf and strong NW winds will diminish. High pressure will build in the wake of this front. CARIBBEAN SEA... Refer to the Special Features section above for details on the Gale Warning, currently in effect near the coast of Colombia. A mid to upper-level low near 15N65W is producing showers with isolated thunderstorms across the far eastern Caribbean, including the eastern Leeward Antilles, the Lesser Antilles and westward into Puerto Rico. Mid to upper-level ridging extends across the western Caribbean. The latest scatterometer data depicts strong to near gale winds north of Colombia. Strong trades cover the rest of the central Caribbean. Fresh trades are seen throughout the eastern and SW Caribbean with moderate trades in the NW Caribbean. The most recent altimeter pass and buoy data indicated seas running 8 to 11 ft for the eastern two-thirds of the basin. Strong high pressure north of the area will maintain strong trade winds across the central Caribbean through Wed, pulsing to gale force each night off the coast of Colombia. Fresh to strong winds will continue in the Windward Passage and the Gulf of Honduras today. Trades over tropical Atlantic waters will slowly diminish through Sat. ATLANTIC OCEAN... At 14/1500 UTC, a cold front continues to sink south and extends from 31N76W to 29N81W. A trough south of the front is noted from 29N77W to 27N80W. Showers are near these boundaries. The latest scatterometer data depicts moderate northerly winds in the far western Atlantic. In the central Atlantic, a cold front is analyzed from 31N40W to 29N48W with isolated showers near it. In response to an upper trough approaching the NW African coast, a surface trough is noted from 30N20W to 15N18W. Widespread showers are moving across the Cabo Verde Islands eastward to Mauritania, Western Sahara, and Morocco. The rest of the basin is dominated by ridging from a 1027 mb high near 29N55W and a 1026 mb high near 30N36W. A cold front off the NE Florida coast will move SE toward the NW Bahamas Sat. Gale conditions are possible well NE of the Bahamas on Sat. The cold front will then gradually dissipate from SE of Bermuda into the central Bahamas Sun and Sun night, and winds will subside. High pressure will build in in the wake of the front. $$ AKR