000 AXNT20 KNHC 141030 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 530 AM EST Fri Feb 14 2020 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1030 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... ...Caribbean Gale Warning... High pressure north of the area will remain in place and maintain strong trades across the central Caribbean through the forecast period, except for gale force winds pulsing each night off the Colombian coast. A recent altimeter passes showed a large area of seas between 8 and 11 ft covering the eastern and central Caribbean. Please read the latest High Seas Forecast product, under AWIPS/WMO headers MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC, the latest Offshore Waters Forecast product under MIAOFFNT3/FZNT23 KNHC, or go to the website https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml, for more details. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The western terminus of the monsoon trough reaches Liberia on the coast of Africa near 05N09W. The ITCZ extends from 03S05W to 02S16W to 03S27W to 00N35W to the coast of Brazil near 01S49W. Scattered moderate and isolated strong convection is noted within an area bounded by 04S13W to 07S26W to 01S47W to 05N40W to 03S25W to 04S13W. GULF OF MEXICO... A cold front extends across the basin from the Florida Big Bend near 29N82.5W to 22N92W to 17.5N93W. Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms are taking place N of 27N and to the NW of the front between 120 and 240 nm. Cloudiness and patchy light rain are occurring along and up to 180 nm NW of this boundary S of 27N. Except for near gale force winds over the waters near Veracruz, observations from oil platforms and buoys indicate fresh to strong N to NE winds W of the front, while light to moderate SE winds are seen E of the front. The front is slowing down and will eventually stall from the Florida Straits to the Bay of Campeche by Sat morning. On Sat and Sun the front will weaken, then dissipate on Mon. Near gale force NW winds W of the front near Veracruz will become fresh by Sat night as the front weakens. High pressure ridging following in the wake of the front will shift E and weaken through early next week. A weak low pressure center may move from W to E across the far northern Gulf this weekend and enhance winds and seas. CARIBBEAN SEA... Refer to the Special Features section above for details on the Gale Warning, currently in effect near the coast of Colombia. Overnight scatterometer data depicted fresh to strong trade winds across the basin. The most recent altimeter passes indicated seas running 8 to 11 ft for the eastern two-thirds of the basin. Strong high pressure north of the area will maintain these conditions for at least the next several days. A mid to upper- level low centered near 14N64W is generating cloudiness and some isolated showers over the far SE Caribbean. Ridging and large scale subsidence prevail over the central and western Caribbean. Strong high pressure ridging north of the area will maintain strong trades across the central Caribbean through the forecast period, pulsing to gale force each night off the coast of Colombia through Tue. A cold front moving E from the United States mainland will weaken the ridge over the western Atlc to allow the fresh to strong trades over the Windward Passage and over in the Gulf of Honduras to subside by tonight. Fresh trades over the tropical Atlantic waters will diminish to mainly moderate speeds Sat. ATLANTIC OCEAN... A cold front currently extends from 32N76W to St Augustine Florida. The front will continue heading E over the the northern waters through Sat, then stall from near 32N60W to near the southern tip of Florida by Sat night. The stalled front is expected to weaken and dissipate by Mon. High pressure will build E over the waters in the wake of the front and remain in place through at least the middle of next week. Strong to near gale force NE winds will develop behind the cold front Fri night and Sat in response to a tight pressure gradient N of the front. Almost the entire basin is dominated by a broad surface ridge, anchored by high pressure systems centered near 28N56W and near 28N37W. Scatterometer data shows moderate to fresh trade winds along the southern flank of the ridge over the tropical northern Atlantic waters. Fresh to strong winds are blowing across the regional waters of Puerto Rico and Hispaniola. These winds are expected to abate for the next few days as the ridge over the western Atlc is temporarily weakened by the cold front pushing E from the SE United states. $$ CAM