000 AXNT20 KNHC 140516 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1216 AM EST Fri Feb 14 2020 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0500 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... ...Caribbean Gale Warning... Strong high pressure north of the area will maintain strong trades across the central Caribbean through the forecast period, except for gale force winds pulsing each night off the Colombian coast. A recent altimeter pass showed seas to 14 ft over the south central Caribbean W of 77W. Please read the latest High Seas Forecast product, under AWIPS/WMO headers MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC, the latest Offshore Waters Forecast product under MIAOFFNT3/FZNT23 KNHC, or go to the website https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml, for more details. ...Gulf of Mexico Gale Warning... A cold front extends across the basin from the Florida Big Bend near 29N83W to 22N93W to 18N93.5W. The front is slowing down and will eventually stall from the Florida Straits to the Bay of Campeche by Sat morning. On Sat and Sun the front will weaken, then dissipate on Mon. Gale force NW winds W of the front near Veracruz will abate by dawn on Fri as the front begins to weaken and the high pres ridge over the western Gulf begins to shift E. Please read the latest High Seas Forecast product, under AWIPS/WMO headers MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC, the latest Offshore Waters Forecast product under MIAOFFNT4/FZNT24 KNHC, or go to the website https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml, for more details. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough extends SW from Liberia on the coast of Africa near 06N10W to 06N14W. The ITCZ continues from 06N14W to 03S25W to 00N35W to the coast of Brazil near 02S46W. Scattered moderate and isolated strong convection is noted from 06S to 02S between 16W and 30W and from 04S to 04N between 30W and 47W. GULF OF MEXICO... Please refer to the Special Features section above for details on the Gale Warning, currently in effect for the southwest Gulf of Mexico. A cold front extends from the Florida Big Bend to the Bay of Campeche. Except for the waters near Veracruz, observations from oil platforms and buoys indicate fresh to strong northerly winds W of the front, while light to moderate SE to S winds prevail E of the front. The front will shift SE across the Gulf, then stall from near the Florida Straits to the Bay of Campeche by Sat morning, then weaken Sat and Sun. High pressure ridging following in the wake of the front will shift E and weaken through early next week. A weak low pressure center may move from W to E across the far northern Gulf this weekend and enhance winds and seas. CARIBBEAN SEA... Refer to the Special Features section above for details on the Gale Warning, currently in effect near the coast of Colombia. Recent scatterometer data depicts fresh to strong trade winds continue across the basin. A recent altimeter pass indicates seas to near 11 ft in the central part of the basin. Strong high pressure north of the area will maintain these conditions during the next several days. A mid to upper-level low centered near 14N64W is generating cloudiness and some isolated showers over the far SE Caribbean. Ridging and large scale subsidence prevail over the central and western Caribbean. Strong high pressure ridging north of the area will maintain strong trades across the central Caribbean through the forecast period, pulsing to gale force each night off the coast of Colombia through Tue. A cold front moving E from the United States mainland will weaken the ridge over the western Atlc to allow the fresh to strong trades over the Windward Passage and over in the Gulf of Honduras to subside by tonight. Fresh trades over the tropical Atlantic waters will diminish to mainly moderate speeds Sat. ATLANTIC OCEAN... The entire basin is dominated by a broad surface ridge, anchored by twin 1026 mb high pressure systems centered near 28N56W and near 29N39W. Scatterometer data depicts moderate to fresh trade winds along the southern periphery of the ridge over the tropical northern Atlantic waters. Fresh to strong winds are blowing across the regional waters of Puerto Rico and Hispaniola. Fresh to strong S winds are also observed E of the Florida Peninsula between the Atlantic ridge and a cold front pushing E from the SE CONUS. The aforementioned cold front will continue heading E over the remainder of the northern waters through Sat before dissipating over the central waters Sat night into Sun. High pressure will build in the wake of the front. $$ CAM