000 AXNT20 KNHC 132351 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 651 PM EST Thu Feb 13 2020 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 2330 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... ...Caribbean Gale Warning... Strong high pressure north of the area will maintain strong trades across the central Caribbean through the forecast period, except for gale force winds pulsing each night off the Colombian coast. A recent altimeter pass showed seas to 14 ft over the south central Caribbean W of 77W. Please read the latest High Seas Forecast product, under AWIPS/WMO headers MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC, the latest Offshore Waters Forecast product under MIAOFFNT3/FZNT23 KNHC, or go to the website https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml, for more details. ...Gulf of Mexico Gale Warning... A cold front extends across the basin from 30N85W to 26N90W to 19N95W. The front will reach from Tampa, Florida to near 24N90W and to the eastern Bay of Campeche by early Fri and weaken further as it moves across the rest of eastern and SE Gulf through Fri night. Northerly winds will reach gale-force west of the front off of Veracruz by 00Z tonight, with seas building to 13 ft in this area. These conditions will continue through early Fri. Please read the latest High Seas Forecast product, under AWIPS/WMO headers MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC, the latest Offshore Waters Forecast product under MIAOFFNT4/FZNT24 KNHC, or go to the website https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml, for more details. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough extends SW from the coast of Africa near 07N12W to 06N13W. The ITCZ continues from 03N13W to the coast of Brazil near 01S45W. Scattered moderate convection is noted south of 04N between 29W-45W. GULF OF MEXICO... Please refer to the Special Features section above for details on the Gale Warning, currently in effect for the southwest Gulf of Mexico. A cold front extends from the Florida panhandle to the Bay of Campeche. Latest scatterometer data depicts fresh to strong northerly winds north of the front, while moderate to fresh southerly winds prevail south of the front. The front will shift across the Gulf and weaken across the SE Gulf Fri night. High pressure in the wake of the front will shift eastward and weaken through early next week. A weak low pressure center may move from W to E across the far northern Gulf this weekend enhancing winds/seas. CARIBBEAN SEA... Refer to the Special Features section above for details on the Gale Warning, currently in effect near the coast of Colombia. Recent scatterometer data depicts fresh to strong trade winds across the basin. An altimeter pass indicate seas to near 10 ft over the eastern part of the basin, and seas to 14 ft over the central Caribbean. Strong high pressure north of the area will maintain these conditions over the next several days. Patches of low level moisture embedded in the trade wind flow will move across the region producing scattered passing showers. Strong high pressure ridging north of the area will maintain strong trades across the central Caribbean through the forecast period, pulsing to gale force each night off the coast of Colombia through Tue. Fresh to strong trades will continue over the Windward Passage and in the Gulf of Honduras through Fri. Fresh trades over the tropical Atlantic waters will diminish to mainly moderate speeds Sat. ATLANTIC OCEAN... The whole basin is dominated by a broad surface ridge, anchored by a couple of high pressure systems centered near 29N57W and near 29N38W. Scatterometer data depicts moderate to fresh trade winds across the southern periphery of the ridge over the tropical northern Atlantic waters. Fresh to strong winds are blowing across the regional waters of Puerto Rico and Hispaniola. Fresh to strong southerly winds are also observed off of north and central Florida between the Atlantic ridge and a cold front over the SE CONUS. A cold front will move into the far NW waters tonight. The front will shift eastward over the remainder of the northern waters through Sat before dissipating over the central waters Sat night into Sun. High pressure will build in the wake of the front. A coastal trough is expected to develop off the northeast Florida coast on Sat. The trough may transition to a weak cold front late Sun night and dissipate by Mon night. Interesting observation of the day, the GOES16 RGB Geocolor imagery continues to depict very dense African dust over the far eastern Atlantic. Surface reports from west Africa and the Cabo Verde Islands are currently indicating dust or blowing dust. $$ ERA