000 AXNT20 KNHC 131735 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1235 PM EST Thu Feb 13 2020 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1715 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... ...Caribbean Gale Warning... Strong high pressure north of the area will maintain strong trades across the central Caribbean through the forecast period, except for gale force winds pulsing each night off the Colombian coast. A recent altimeter pass showed seas to 14 ft over the south central Caribbean W of 77W. Please read the latest High Seas Forecast product, under AWIPS/WMO headers MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC, the latest Offshore Waters Forecast product under MIAOFFNT3/FZNT23 KNHC, or go to the website https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml, for more details. ...Gulf of Mexico Gale Warning... A cold front extends from the western Florida Panhandle to 24N94W, then becomes stationary to just S of Tuxpan, Mexico. The cold front will reach from Apalachee Bay to near 25N90W and to the south-central Bay of Campeche by this evening, then begin to weaken as it reaches from Tampa, Florida to near 24N90W and to the eastern Bay of Campeche early Fri and weaken further as it moves across the rest of eastern and SE Gulf Fri night. Northerly winds will reach minimal gale force west of the front off Veracruz late this afternoon into tonight, with seas building to 12 or 13 ft. Fresh to strong northerly winds are expected elsewhere W of front through Fri. A band of showers with embedded tstms is noted in association with the front, but mainly N of 27N. Abundant cloudiness with possible showers is seen elsewhere W of the front. High pressure will build in the wake of the front, then shift eastward and weaken through early next week. Please read the latest High Seas Forecast product, under AWIPS/WMO headers MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC, the latest Offshore Waters Forecast product under MIAOFFNT4/FZNT24 KNHC, or go to the website https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml, for more details. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough extends SW from the SE coast of Liberia to 04N10W. The ITCZ continues from 04N10W to 01N25W to the coast of Brazil near 03S44W. Scattered moderate convection is from 00N to 04N between 07W and 20W. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection is from 00N to 03N between 32W and 38W. GULF OF MEXICO... Please refer to the Special Features section above for details on the Gale Warning, currently in effect for the southwest Gulf of Mexico. High pressure over the Atlantic Ocean extends a ridge across Florida into the eastern Gulf of Mexico. Moderate to locally fresh southerly winds are noted along the western periphery of the ridge and ahead of the front. The high will slowly shift eastward during the next couple of days as the frontal boundary nudges E across the Gulf. Weak low pressure may move from W to E across the far northern Gulf Sat night through Sun night. CARIBBEAN SEA... Refer to the Special Features section above for details on the Gale Warning, currently in effect near the coast of Colombia. Recent scatterometer data provide observations of fresh to strong trade winds across the east and central Caribbean, particularly from 11N to 18N E of 80W. An altimeter pass indicate seas to near 10 ft over the eastern part of the basin, and seas to 14 ft over the central Caribbean. Strong high pressure north of the area will maintain strong trades across the central Caribbean over the next several days. Fresh to strong trades will continue over the Windward Passage and in the Gulf of Honduras through Fri. Fresh trades over the tropical Atlantic waters will diminish to mainly moderate speeds on Sat. Patches of low level moisture embedded in the trade wind flow will move across the region producing isolated to scattered passing showers. ATLANTIC OCEAN... The Atlantic Ocean is dominated by a broad surface ridge, anchored by a couple of high pressure systems centered SE of Bermuda near 29N62W and NE of the Madeira Islands near 35N12W. Scatterometer data indicate moderate to fresh trade winds across the southern periphery of the ridge over the tropical northern Atlantic waters. Fresh to strong winds are blowing across the regional waters of Puerto Rico and Hispaniola. Fresh to strong southerly winds are also observed off of north and central Florida between the Atlantic ridge and a cold front over the SE CONUS. The high pressure over the area will retreat eastward through this evening with the approach of cold front that is presently over the southeastern U.S. This front will move across the far NW waters of the SW N Atlantic tonight, and over the remainder of the northern waters through Sat before dissipating over the central waters Sat night into Sun. High pressure will build in the wake of the front. A coastal trough is expected to develop off the northeast Florida coast on Sat. The trough may transition to a weak cold front late Sun night and dissipate by Mon night. Interesting observation of the day, the GOES16 RGB Geocolor imagery shows very dense African dust over the far eastern Atlantic. Surface reports from west Africa and the Cabo Verde Islands are currently indicating dust or blowing dust. Satellite imagery also shows the northern edge of the African dust reaching the Canary Islands. $$ GR