000 AXNT20 KNHC 121036 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 536 AM EST Wed Feb 12 2020 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0800 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... ...SOUTH-CENTRAL CARIBBEAN GALE WARNING... A tight pressure gradient will continue to support gale-force winds each night through Sun night along the Caribbean coast of Colombia south of 12N between 74W and 76W. Please read the latest High Seas Forecast product, under AWIPS/WMO headers MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC, the latest Offshore Waters Forecast product under MIAOFFNT3/FZNT23 KNHC, or go to the website https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml, for more details. ...GULF OF MEXICO GALE WARNING... A stalled out front in the NW Gulf analyzed along a 1010 mb low pressure area near 26.5N96.5W then continuing as a cold front to the coast of Mexico near 23N98W will progress eastward as a complete cold front later today, then cross the basin through Fri evening. Winds will reach gale force west of the front along the coast of Mexico near Veracruz Thu night. The front will re- stall and gradually weaken over the south- central and SE Gulf Fri night, as high pressure builds in its wake. Please read the latest High Seas Forecast product, under AWIPS/WMO headers MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC, the latest Offshore Waters Forecast product under MIAOFFNT4/FZNT24 KNHC, or go to the website https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml, for more details. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough extends southwest from the coast of Liberia near 05N09W to 04N12W, with a surface trough from 06N12W to 00N16W. The ITCZ extends from 03N17W to the equator near 26W, continuing south of the equator to the coast of Brazil near 02S40W. Scattered moderate and isolated strong convection is noted from the equator to 03N between 12W and 24W. Scattered moderate convection is noted from 01N to 03N between 31W and 35W, and also from the equator to 02N between 44W and 50W. GULF OF MEXICO... Refer to the special features section above for details on the Gale Warning, currently in effect for the southwest Gulf of Mexico. Extensive cloudiness and patchy light rain are evident N of the front described above, with patchy dense fog across the northern Gulf coastal and offshore waters ahead of the front. Scatterometer data depicts light to moderate SE winds across the basin with the exception of W of the fronts, where fresh N to NE winds were seen, and in the south-central Gulf where a patch of fresh to strong winds due to a locally tight pressure gradient are evident. Otherwise, deep layer ridging was maintaining fair weather over the basin. The ridging will retreat eastward and weaken as the above mentioned front traverses the basin, then will build back in from the north this weekend in the wake of the front. CARIBBEAN SEA... Refer to the special features section above for details on the Gale Warning, currently in effect for the south-central Caribbean. Latest scatterometer data depicts fresh to strong easterly trade winds across much of the basin, except moderate to fresh N of 18N to the west of the approach to the Windward Passage. Strong mid to upper-level subsidence over the basin will suppress convection for the next couple of days. High pressure ridging will prevail N of the area through the weekend. This will maintain strong trades across the central Caribbean through the period, except for gale force winds pulsing each night along the Colombian coast as is described above. ATLANTIC OCEAN... The basin is dominated by a broad surface ridge, anchored by elongated high pressure north of the area. This ridge is supporting moderate to fresh trade winds across the tropical northern Atlantic, south of 24N and east of 60W. Winds north of Hispaniola will be fresh the next couple of days, except on the approach to the Windward Passage, where winds will be strong. Strong high pressure will reside over the offshore forecast waters until it begins to retreat eastward tonight as a cold front approaches the region from the west. Southerly flow will increase to fresh to strong offshore of northern Florida by late tonight into early Thu. The cold front is expected to move off the southeastern United States coast by Thu evening. The front will move SE across the area through Sat before dissipating over the central waters Sat night into Sun. High pressure will build across the Atlc in the wake of the front. $$ Lewitsky