000 AXNT20 KNHC 120511 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1211 AM EST Wed Feb 12 2020 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0440 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... ...SOUTH-CENTRAL CARIBBEAN GALE WARNING... A tight pressure gradient will continue to support gale-force winds each night through Sun night along the coast of N Colombia south of 12N between 74W and 76W. Please read the latest High Seas Forecast product, under AWIPS/WMO headers MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC, the latest Offshore Waters Forecast product under MIAOFFNT3/FZNT23 KNHC, or go to the website https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml, for more details. ...GULF OF MEXICO GALE WARNING... A cold front will enter the NW Gulf Wed evening then cross the Gulf through Fri evening. Winds will reach gale force west of the front along the coast of Mexico near Veracruz Thu night. The front will stall and gradually weaken over the south-central and SE Gulf Fri night, as high pressure builds in its wake. Please read the latest High Seas Forecast product, under AWIPS/WMO headers MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC, the latest Offshore Waters Forecast product under MIAOFFNT4/FZNT24 KNHC, or go to the website https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml, for more details. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough extends SW from the coast of Liberia near 05N09W to 04N12W. The ITCZ extends from 01N17W to 02N22W to 00N36W to the coast of Brazil near 03S41W. Scattered moderate convection is noted from 00N to 03N between 12W and 23W. Isolated showers are also noted N of the ITCZ from 00N to 03N between 23W and 38W. GULF OF MEXICO... A stationary front extends SW from the coast of Louisiana near 29.5N92.5W to low pres 1010 mb centered off the Texas Coastal Bend near 27N95.5W. A cold front curves SW from the low to the NE Tamaulipas coast of Mexico near 25N97.5W. Extensive cloudiness and patchy light rain are evident N of the fronts. Scatterometer data depicts light to moderate SE winds across the basin with the exception of N of the fronts, where moderate to fresh N to NE winds were seen. Otherwise, deep layer ridging was maintaining fair weather over the basin. Surface ridging will dominate the Gulf through Wed evening. A cold front will enter the NW Gulf by Wed evening then move across the Gulf through Fri evening. Please refer to the Special Features Section for more details on the next Gulf of Mexico Gale event. CARIBBEAN SEA... Refer to the special features section above for details on the Gale Warning, currently in effect for the south-central Caribbean. Latest scatterometer data depicts moderate to fresh easterly trade winds across most of the basin, except south of 17N between 62W and 80W, where fresh to strong winds prevail. Strong mid to upper-level subsidence over the basin will suppress convection for the next couple of days. High pressure ridging will prevail N of the area through the weekend. This will maintain strong trades across the central Caribbean through the period, except for gale force winds pulsing each night along the Colombian coast. ATLANTIC OCEAN... The basin is dominated by a broad surface ridge, anchored by a 1031 mb high centered near 33N35W. This ridge is supporting moderate to fresh trade winds across the tropical northern Atlantic, south of 25N and E of 60W. Winds N of Hispaniola will be fresh the next couple of days, except on the approach to the Windward Passage, where winds will be strong. Strong high pressure will reside over the forecast waters until tonight. A cold front is expected to move off the southeastern United States coast Thu evening. The front will move SE across the area through Sat before dissipating over the central waters Sat night into Sun. High pressure will build across the Atlc in the wake of the front. $$ CAM