000 AXNT20 KNHC 112331 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 631 PM EST Tue Feb 11 2020 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 2315 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... ...SOUTH-CENTRAL CARIBBEAN GALE WARNING... A tight pressure gradient will continue to support gale-force winds each night through the next few days along the coast of N Colombia south of 12N between 74W-76W. Please read the latest High Seas Forecast product, under AWIPS/WMO headers MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC, the latest Offshore Waters Forecast product under MIAOFFNT3/FZNT23 KNHC, or go to the website https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml, for more details. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough extends across the coast of Africa near 02N10W to 03N19W. The ITCZ continues from 03N19W to 02S43W. Scattered moderate convection is noted from 00N-05N between 10W-27W. Scattered showers are noted also within 105 nm on either sides of the ITCZ between 28W-44W. GULF OF MEXICO... A stationary front extends across the northwest Gulf waters from 29N93W to 27N97W, then it continues inland across S Texas into a 1012 mb low pressure. Scattered showers are noted along the Texas coast with the front. Scatterometer data depicts light to moderate southeast winds across the basin with the exception of the Bay of Campeche south of 21N, where fresh winds prevail. Surface ridging will dominate the Gulf through Wed evening. A cold front will move into the NW Gulf by Wed evening then move across the Gulf through Fri evening. Gale conditions are possible west of the front off Veracruz on Thu. The front will stall and gradually weaken over the south-central and SE Gulf Fri night, with high pressure building in its wake. CARIBBEAN SEA... Refer to the section above for details on the Gale Warning, currently in effect for the south-central Caribbean. Latest scatterometer data depicts moderate to fresh easterly trade winds across most of the basin, except south of 17N between 62W-80W, and fresh to strong winds prevail from 16N south between 71W-78W. Scattered low-topped showers are quickly moving across the basin with these winds, mainly east of 70W. High pressure ridging will prevail N of the area through the weekend. This will maintain strong trades across the central Caribbean through the period, except for gale force winds pulsing each night off the Colombian coast. ATLANTIC OCEAN... The basin is dominated by a broad surface ridge, anchored by a 1030 mb high centered near 34N37W. This ridge is supporting fresh to strong trade winds across most of the tropical northern Atlantic, south of 24N and E of 60W. Strong high pressure will dominate the forecast waters through Wed night. A cold front is expected to move off the southeastern coast Thu evening. The front will move southeastward across the area through Sat before dissipating over the central waters Sat night into Sun. High pressure will build in the wake of the front. $$ ERA