000 AXNT20 KNHC 111742 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1242 PM EST Tue Feb 11 2020 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1735 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... ...CARIBBEAN SEA GALE WARNING... The surface pressure gradient will maintain gale force winds along the coast of N Colombia continuing through mid morning and then subsiding this afternoon. These conditions will develop again tonight through Wed morning. Please read the latest High Seas Forecast product, under AWIPS/WMO headers MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC, the latest Offshore Waters Forecast product under MIAOFFNT3/FZNT23 KNHC, or go to the website https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml, for more details.. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough passes through the Prime Meridian along 02N, to 03N18W. The ITCZ continues from 03N18W to 01S43W. Scattered moderate strong convection is seen from 02S-07N between 07W-20W. Along the ITCZ, scattered moderate convection is present from 01S- 03N between 20W-43W. GULF OF MEXICO... A cold front has moved into the NW Gulf waters extending from 29N93W to 27N97W, then it continues inland across S Texas into a 1010 mb low pressure. Scattered light to moderate showers are developing along the Texas coast. Overcast layer of low ceilings is reported in most of the observations west of 87W. Scatterometer shows light to moderate southeast winds are present across the basin with the exception of fresh winds in the Bay of Campeche south of 21N. Surface ridging and moderate to fresh return flow will dominate the gulf through Wed evening. A cold front will become stationary along the Texas coast this afternoon and through Wed, before moving into the NW Gulf Wed evening. The cold front is expected to move across the Gulf Wed night through Fri evening, and will likely bring gale conditions off Veracruz on Thu and Thu night. The front will stall and gradually weaken over the south- central and SE Gulf Fri and Fri night, with ridging becoming re-established into the weekend. CARIBBEAN SEA... Refer to the section above for details on the Gale Warning, currently in effect for the south-central Caribbean. Latest scatterometer data depicts moderate to fresh easterly trade winds across most of the basin, except south of 17N between 62W-80W, and fresh to strong winds prevail from 16N south between 71W-78W. Scattered low-topped showers are quickly moving across the basin with these winds, mainly east of 80W. Strong high pressure ridging north of the area will maintain strong trades across the central Caribbean through the period, except for gale force winds pulsing each night off the Colombian coast. Fresh to strong winds will pulse at night across the Gulf of Honduras and in the the approaches to the Windward Passage through Thu morning. Strong high pressure is forecast to emerge off the northeastern U.S. on Sat evening allowing for fresh to strong winds over most of the central and southern waters, including the Windward Passage, through the remainder of the weekend. Fresh trades over the tropical Atlantic waters will diminish late Fri. ATLANTIC OCEAN... The basin is dominated by a broad surface ridge, anchored by a 1033 mb high centered near 34N35W. This ridge is supporting fresh to strong trade winds across most of the tropical northern Atlantic, south of 24N and E of 60W. An upper level trough is digging in West Africa, from Morocco and Algeria, to Sierra Leone. Comparatively drier air in subsidence is apparent in water vapor imagery on the western side of the trough, within 480 nm of the coast of Africa, from 06N to 30N. Strong high pressure will dominate the forecast waters through Wed night. A cold front is expected to move off the southeastern coast Thu evening. Fresh to strong southerly winds preceding the front are expected to affect the northwestern waters Wed night through Thu. The front will move southeastward across the area through Sat before dissipating over the central waters Sat night into Sun. $$ Torres