000 AXNT20 KNHC 110451 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1151 PM EST Mon Feb 10 2020 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0430 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... ...CARIBBEAN SEA GALE WARNING... The current forecast, valid at 11/0000 UTC, consists of: NE-to-E gale-force winds, and sea heights ranging from 8 feet to 10 feet and increasing to 11 feet to 13 feet, from 11N to 13N between 73W and 77W, along the coast of Colombia. The gale-force winds will last until the middle of the day on Tuesday. Please read the latest HIGH SEAS FORECAST: MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC, the latest OFFSHORE FORECAST: MIAOFFNT3/FZNT23 KNHC, or go to the website https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml, from the NWS National Hurricane Center, for more details. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough passes through the coastal border sections of Guinea and Sierra Leone, to 04N20W and 01N26W. The ITCZ continues from 01N26W, crossing the Equator along 36W, to the coastal waters of Brazil near 02S43W. Precipitation: isolated moderate to locally strong to the SE of the line that runs from 10N at the coast of Guinea, to the coast of Brazil near 04N52W. GULF OF MEXICO... A cold front is in Texas, about 60 nm to the NW of the coast. Precipitation: isolated moderate to the NW of the line that runs from SE Louisiana to the Deep South of Texas along the coast. Broad upper level anticyclonic wind flow spans the entire Gulf of Mexico. A surface ridge extends from the NE Gulf of Mexico into the SW corner of the Gulf of Mexico. Surface anticyclonic wind flow spans the Gulf of Mexico. A surface ridge, and moderate to fresh return flow, will dominate the Gulf of Mexico through Wednesday evening. A cold front will stall along the TX coast on Tuesday and Wednesday, before moving into the NW Gulf on Wednesday evening. The cold front is expected to move across the Gulf of Mexico, from Wednesday night through Friday evening. It is likely that the cold front will bring gale- force wind conditions off Veracruz Mexico on Thursday and Thursday night. The front will stall and weaken gradually, in the S central and SE Gulf of Mexico on Friday and Friday night. CARIBBEAN SEA... Precipitation: rainshowers are possible in broken low level clouds, in trade wind flow, across the entire area. Comparatively drier air in subsidence in water vapor imagery covers the Caribbean Sea and the Atlantic Ocean, from 17N to 23N between the Mona Passage and 83W. This area includes: Puerto Rico, Hispaniola, Jamaica, parts of Cuba and the Bahamas. A strong high pressure ridge N of the area will maintain strong tradewinds across the central Caribbean Sea through the period, Gale-force winds will be pulsing each night off the coast of Colombia. Fresh to strong winds will pulse at night across the Gulf of Honduras and the approach to the Windward Passage through Thursday morning. Strong high pressure will come off the NE CONUS on Saturday evening. The strong high pressure will support fresh to strong winds along the Windward Passage and Cuba adjacent waters through the remainder of the weekend. Fresh trade winds, dominating the tropical Atlantic Ocean waters, will diminish late on Friday. ATLANTIC OCEAN... A dissipating stationary front passes through 32N69W, to 30N74, to 28N76W. Precipitation: isolated moderate from 20N northward between 56W and 75W. An upper level trough extends from a 24N44W cyclonic circulation center, to the coast of Suriname. Precipitation: isolated moderate from 18N to 27N between 40W and 45W, and within 60 nm to 120 nm to the north of the coast of French Guiana between 51W and 53W. An upper level trough is digging in West Africa, from Morocco and Algeria, to Guinea. Comparatively drier air in subsidence is apparent in water vapor imagery on the western side of the trough, within 450 nm of the coast of Africa, from 07N to 30N. The current dissipating stationary front will vanish tonight. Strong high pressure will dominate the forecast waters through Wednesday night. A cold front is expected to move off the SE U.S.A. coast on Thursday evening. Fresh to strong southerly winds associated with the front are expected to affect the NW waters from Wednesday night through Thursday. The front will move SE across the area through Saturday, before dissipating to the NE of Puerto Rico on Saturday night. $$ MT