000 AXNT20 KNHC 102323 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 623 PM EST Mon Feb 10 2020 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 2315 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... ...CARIBBEAN SEA GALE WARNING... The surface pressure gradient will continue tightening along the coast of N Colombia during this evening and overnight, to produce gale-force winds and seas of 11-14 ft south of 12N between 74W-77W. These conditions will subside by Tue morning, then gale winds will develop again Tue night through Wed morning. Please read the latest High Seas Forecast product, under AWIPS/WMO headers MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC, the latest Offshore Waters Forecast product under MIAOFFNT3/FZNT23 KNHC, or go to the website https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml, for more details. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough passes through the southern coastal sections of Africa near 07N11W to 04N18W. The ITCZ continues from 04N18W, to 02S40W. Scattered showers are noted within 45 nm on either sides of the ITCZ. GULF OF MEXICO... A surface ridge extends across the basin with fair weather. Moderate to fresh anticyclonic winds prevails across the Gulf waters, as noted in latest scatterometer data. High pressure will prevail across the basin through mid-week. A cold front will stall along the TX coast Tue and Wed, before moving into the NW Gulf by Wed evening. The cold front is expected to move across the Gulf Wed night through late Fri, and will likely bring gale conditions off of Veracruz on Thu. The front will stall and gradually weaken over the S central and SE Gulf on Fri. CARIBBEAN SEA... Refer to the section above for details on the Gale Warning, currently in effect for the south-central Caribbean. Latest scatterometer data depicts moderate to fresh easterly trade winds across most of the basin, except south of 13N between 71W-77W, where fresh to strong winds prevail. Scattered low-topped showers are quickly moving across the basin with these winds, mainly east of 80W. The strong high pressure ridge N of the area will maintain strong tradewinds across the central Caribbean through the forecast period, except for gale force winds pulsing each night off the Colombia coast. Fresh to strong winds will pulse at night across the Gulf of Honduras and the approach to the Windward Passage through Wed night. ATLANTIC OCEAN... A stationary front extends across the western Atlantic from into the area of discussion near 31N59W and continues to 29N70W to 26N78W. Scattered showers are noted along the front. Fresh easterly winds are noted within 300 nm SE of the front. The remainder of the basin is dominated by a broad surface ridge, anchored by a 1034 mb high centered near 38N15W. This ridge is supporting fresh to strong trade winds across most of the tropical northern Atlantic, E of 60W. The stationary front will dissipate tonight. Strong high pressure centered W of the Azores will build westward to Florida by the middle of the week to maintain a strong Atlantic ridge. The high will weaken and shift E late Wed ahead of a cold front expected to move off the SE U.S. coast Thu evening. Fresh to strong southerly winds will affect the NW waters Wed night through Thu. The front will move SE across the area through Sat before dissipating N of Puerto Rico at night. $$ ERA