000 AXNT20 KNHC 100524 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1224 AM EST Mon Feb 10 2020 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0510 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... ...CARIBBEAN SEA GALE WARNING... The current forecast, valid at 10/0000 UTC, consists of NE gale- force winds, and sea heights ranging from 10 feet to 12 feet, from 11N to 12N between 74W and 76W, along the coast of Colombia. The gale-force winds will last for the next 15 hours or so. Please read the latest HIGH SEAS FORECAST: MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC, the latest OFFSHORE FORECAST: MIAOFFNT3/FZNT23 KNHC, or go to the website https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml, from the NWS National Hurricane Center, for more details. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough passes through the coastal sections of Sierra Leone near 08N13W to 03N24W. The ITCZ continues from 03N24W, to the Equator along 32W, to the coastal sections of Brazil near 03S40W. Precipitation: isolated to widely scattered moderate and isolated strong from 05N southward from 50W eastward. GULF OF MEXICO... Upper level SW-to-W wind flow spans the entire Gulf of Mexico. A surface ridge extends from the NE Gulf of Mexico into the SW corner of the Gulf of Mexico. Surface anticyclonic wind flow spans the Gulf of Mexico. High pressure, centered in the Carolinas, will extend SW across the Gulf of Mexico through the early part of the week. A cold front will stall along the TX coast on Tuesday and Wednesday, before moving into the NW Gulf on Wednesday night. The cold front is expected to move through the Gulf from Thursday into Friday. It is possible that the cold front may bring gale-force wind conditions to the offshore waters of Veracruz Mexico during this time. CARIBBEAN SEA... Precipitation: rainshowers are possible in broken low level clouds, in trade wind flow, across the entire area. Comparatively drier air in subsidence in water vapor imagery covers the Caribbean Sea, from 18N southward from 84W eastward. The drier air covers inland areas of Central America and South America, from Honduras to Panama, and from Colombia to Guyana. 24-hour rainfall totals that are listed for the period that ended at 10/0000 UTC, according to the PAN AMERICAN TEMPERATURE AND PRECIPITATION TABLES, MIATPTPAN/SXCA01 KNHC, are: 0.14 in Guadeloupe, and 0.13 in Curacao. High pressure, building in the central Atlantic Ocean, will induce strong trade winds in the central Caribbean Sea. Gale- force winds will be pulsing each night off the coast of Colombia into the next weekend. Fresh to locally strong trade winds also will dominate the tropical Atlantic Ocean waters. ATLANTIC OCEAN... A stationary front passes through 31N61W, to 27N70W, to the central Bahamas, to 23N77W between the Bahamas and Cuba. near 23N84W. Precipitation: isolated moderate within 750 nm to the east of the stationary front from 22N northward. 24-hour rainfall totals that are listed for the period that ended at 10/0000 UTC, according to the PAN AMERICAN TEMPERATURE AND PRECIPITATION TABLES, MIATPTPAN/SXCA01 KNHC, are: 0.04 in Bermuda. An upper level trough passes through 30N44W to 14N51W, to the coast of Guyana. Comparatively drier air in subsidence is apparent in water vapor imagery from 16N southward between 45W and 60W. An upper level trough is digging in West Africa, from northern Algeria, to NE Mauritania, to Senegal. Comparatively drier air in subsidence is apparent in water vapor imagery on the western side of the trough, within 360 nm of the coast of Africa, from 13N to 26N. The current stationary front will weaken on Monday, and dissipate on Monday night. Strong high pressure, centered to the W of the Azores, will build westward to Florida by the middle of the week, in order to maintain a strong Atlantic Ocean ridge. The high pressure will weaken somewhat late on Wednesday and Thursday, as a cold front approaches the SE U.S.A. coast. It is likely that a more significant cold front may move off the SE U.S.A. coast on Thursday night. $$ MT