000 AXNT20 KNHC 091736 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1236 PM EST Sun Feb 9 2020 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1600 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... ...CARIBBEAN GALE WARNING... The surface pressure gradient will tighten along the coast of N Colombia during the evening and nighttime hours to produce gale- force winds and seas of 11-13 ft. The gale is forecast to start by 10/0300 UTC and persist until 10/1200 UTC. Similar conditions will return by 11/0000 UTC and end by 11/1200 UTC. Please read the latest High Seas Forecast product, under AWIPS/WMO headers MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC, the latest Offshore Waters Forecast product under MIAOFFNT3/FZNT23 KNHC, or go to the website https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml, for more details. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough extends along the coast of Africa from 05N00W to 05N10W and continues over the Atlantic to 03N20W. The ITCZ continues from that point to 00N30W to the coast of South America near 03S43W. Isolated moderate convection is noted from 03S-01N between 30W-42W. GULF OF MEXICO... Moderate to fresh easterly to southeasterly winds prevail over the basin, around high pressure centered over the Mid-Atlantic region of the United States. A weakening stationary front extends from the southwestern Atlantic to the Florida Straits near 24N82W to 23N85W. Scattered showers are indicated by Key West radar within 60 n mi of this front. The area of high pressure will extend SW across the basin through the early part of the week as the high shifts ENE into the Atlantic. A cold front will move into the western Gulf Wed, and reach from the Florida Big Bend region to central Bay of Campeche Thu night. CARIBBEAN SEA... Refer to the section above for details on the Gale Warning, currently in effect for the south-central Caribbean. The same strong pressure gradient supporting the gale is producing fresh to strong east to northeast winds across much of the central Caribbean. Moderate easterly trade winds prevail across the remainder of the Caribbean, except locally fresh in the Lee of Cuba and the Windward Passage. Other than some patches of showers, the Caribbean basin is devoid of convection. Strong high pressure will shift E off the middle Atlantic coast of the U.S. this afternoon and tonight and then slide ENE across the NW Atlantic through mid week to maintain a strong Atlantic ridge. Strong tradewinds across the central Caribbean will pulse to gale force off the Colombian coast each night through the week. Fresh to strong tradewinds will dominate the Tropical Atlantic waters throughout the week. ATLANTIC OCEAN... A stationary front extends into the area of discussion near 31N63W and continues to 25N73W to the Florida Straits. Showers and isolated thunderstorms are within 90 n mi of the front E of 67W. Scattered showers are within 60 n mi of the front W of 67W. Fresh northeasterly winds are occurring within 300 n mi NE of the front. The remainder of the basin is dominated by a broad ridge with a 1039 mb high centered near 32N34W. This strong ridge is supporting fresh to strong trade winds across most of the tropical northern Atlantic, E of 60W. The stationary front will meander and gradually dissipate through Mon. Strong high pressure centered W of the Azores will build westward to Florida by the middle of the week to maintain a strong Atlantic ridge. The high will weaken somewhat late Wed and Thu as a cold front approaches the SE U.S. coast. $$ ASL