000 AXNT20 KNHC 090510 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1210 AM EST Sun Feb 9 2020 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0450 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... ...CARIBBEAN SEA GALE WARNING... The current forecast, valid at 09/0000 UTC, consists of NE gale- force winds, and sea heights ranging from 10 feet to 12 feet, from 11N to 12N between 75W and 76W. The gale-force winds will last for 12 hours, and continue again at the 24-hour time period. Please read the latest HIGH SEAS FORECAST: MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC, the latest OFFSHORE FORECAST: MIAOFFNT3/FZNT23 KNHC, or go to the website https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml, from the NWS National Hurricane Center, for more details. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough passes the coastal sections of the Ivory Coast near 05N05W, to 03N10W and 02N14W. An inverted surface trough is along 24W/26W from 07N southward. The ITCZ continues from 02N14W, to 02N18W, 03N22W, and to 03N25W. The ITCZ also is along 01S28W 01S33W, to 03S42W at the coast of Brazil. Precipitation: Widely scattered moderate to isolated strong from 02N southward from 06W eastward. Isolated moderate from 06N southward between 14W and 30W. Widely scattered moderate to isolated strong from the Equator to 03S between 30W and 35W, and from the Equator to 03S between 42W and 46W. Rainshowers are possible elsewhere from 10N southward between 34W and 55W. GULF OF MEXICO... Upper level SW-to-W wind flow spans the entire Gulf of Mexico. A surface ridge extends from a NE Gulf of Mexico 1027 mb high pressure center, near 29.5N83W, to 21N95W. Surface anticyclonic wind flow spans the Gulf of Mexico. The current high pressure will build SW into the Gulf of Mexico, and it will dominate through the middle of the next week. A cold front will reach the far NW Gulf of Mexico on Tuesday, before stalling into Wednesday, and then possibly surging SE through the Gulf on Thursday. CARIBBEAN SEA... Precipitation: rainshowers are possible in broken low level clouds, in trade wind flow, from 12N northward from 80W eastward, and from 16N northward from 80W westward. Comparatively drier air in subsidence in water vapor imagery covers the Caribbean Sea, from 74W eastward, and from 18N southward between 74W and 84W, including from the eastern sections of Honduras into Nicaragua, Costa Rica, and Panama, Colombia, and Venezuela. 24-hour rainfall totals that are listed for the period that ended at 09/0000 UTC, according to the PAN AMERICAN TEMPERATURE AND PRECIPITATION TABLES, MIATPTPAN/SXCA01 KNHC, are: 0.13 in Guadeloupe. High pressure, centered to the N and E of the area, will build into the Caribbean Sea during the upcoming week. Nighttime gale- force wind events are expected off the coast of Colombia, from tonight through the next week. ATLANTIC OCEAN... Upper level SW wind flow moves from the Gulf of Mexico, across Florida, into the western part of the Atlantic Ocean, to the west of the cold front. A cold front passes through 32N62W, to 27N70W, to the central Bahamas near 24N75W. Precipitation: Broken to overcast multilayered clouds and isolated to widely scattered moderate within 180 nm to the W/NW of the cold front, and within 90 nm to the E/SE of the cold front. 24-hour rainfall totals that are listed for the period that ended at 09/0000 UTC, according to the PAN AMERICAN TEMPERATURE AND PRECIPITATION TABLES, MIATPTPAN/SXCA01 KNHC, are: 1.17 in Bermuda. An upper level trough extends from an upper level cyclonic circulation center that is in western Mauritania, to 22N35W and and 23N48W, to a 17N55W 26N18W upper level cyclonic circulation center, to 24N38W, to a 17N53W cyclonic circulation center, to 11N59W just to the east of the SE Caribbean Sea. Precipitation: isolated moderate from 20N to 25N between 50W and 60W. The current cold front will stall fully by Sunday morning. The front will dissipate gradually on Monday. High pressure centered W of the Azores will continue to maintain a ridge that extends along 32N, to just S of Bermuda through the weekend. The ridge will build westward to Florida by the middle of the next week. $$ MT