411 AXNT20 KNHC 081738 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1238 PM EST Sat Feb 8 2020 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1715 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... ...CARIBBEAN SEA GALE WARNING... The surface gradient will tighten along the coast of N Colombia during the evening and night hours to produce gale force winds and seas 9-13 ft. A gale is forecast to start 09/0000 UTC and end 09/1200 UTC. A similar gale is forecast to start 10/0000 UTC and end 10/1200 UTC. Please read the latest HIGH SEAS FORECAST: MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC, the latest OFFSHORE FORECAST: MIAOFFNT3/FZNT23 KNHC, or go to the website https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml, from the NWS National Hurricane Center, for more details. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough extends from the coast of Liberia from 05N08W to 04N12W. The ITCZ continues from 04N12W to 04N20W. The ITCZ continues west of a surface trough near 03N24W to 01S30W to the coast of Brazil near 03S40W. Scattered moderate convection is near the surface trough from 03N-06N between 21W-25W. GULF OF MEXICO... A 1028 mb high is centered over N Florida near 30N82W. 10-15 kt SE winds are over the Gulf of Mexico. Fair weather is over the NE Gulf and N Florida. Scattered showers remain over the Straits of Florida. Further west, a weak stationary front extends from Marsh Island Louisiana near 29.5N92W to Matagorda Island Texas near 28N96W. The front is void of convection. Elsewhere, broken to overcast low clouds are over the SW Gulf, south of 24N and west of 94W. High pressure currently over the SE U.S. will build SW across the region and dominate into the middle of next week. A weak cold front will stall just off the TX and LA coasts tonight, then dissipate Sat. The next cold front is expected to stall near the TX coast Tue, then move into the NW Gulf late Wed. CARIBBEAN SEA... A quasi-stationary front extends from central Cuba near 23N79W to the Yucatan Peninsula near 20N87W. Scattered showers are over the Yucatan Channel. 10-30 kt tradewinds are over the remainder of the Caribbean Sea. Strongest winds are along the coast of N Colombia, while weakest winds are along the coast of Nicaragua. The current stationary front will drift slowly NW and continue to weaken through tonight before dissipating. High pressure will rebuild north of the area in the wake of the front, to produce strong tradewinds across the south central Caribbean, pulsing to gale force off of Colombia each night, starting tonight through Wed night. ATLANTIC OCEAN... A cold front is over the W Atlantic from 31N65W to central Cuba near 23N79W. Scattered showers are within 120 nm north of the front. A large 1036 mb high is over the central Atlantic near 32N35W producing fair weather. Of note in the upper levels, a small upper level low is centered east of the Leeward Islands near 19N52W. Scattered showers are within 120 nm of the center. The current cold front will stall from near 31N63W to the SE Bahamas early tonight, then gradually drift NW and dissipate through early next week. High pressure centered W of the Azores will continue to maintain a ridge axis extending along about 32N to just S of Bermuda through the weekend, building westward to Florida by the middle of next week. $$ Formosa