000 AXNT20 KNHC 080602 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 102 AM EST Sat Feb 8 2020 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0540 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... ...CARIBBEAN SEA GALE WARNING... The 27-hour forecast, valid at 08/0000 UTC, consists of NE-to-E gale- force winds, and sea heights ranging from 11 feet to 13 feet, from 11N to 12N between 75W and 76W. The gale-force winds will last for 9 hours, ending at the 36-hour time period. Please read the latest HIGH SEAS FORECAST: MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC, the latest OFFSHORE FORECAST: MIAOFFNT3/FZNT23 KNHC, or go to the website https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml, from the NWS National Hurricane Center, for more details. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough passes the coastal sections of Liberia near 06N10W, to 05N12W, and to 01N19W. The ITCZ continues from 01N19W, to 02S26W, to 02S34W, curving to the coast of Brazil near 04S39W. Precipitation: Isolated moderate is from 06N southward from 30W eastward, and from 02N southward between 30W and 50W. GULF OF MEXICO... Upper level SW wind flow spans the entire Gulf of Mexico. A 1021 mb high pressure center is near 28N87W. Surface anticyclonic wind flow spans the Gulf of Mexico. High pressure will build into the region and dominate the area into the middle of next week. A weak cold front will stall just off the TX and LA coasts tonight, and then dissipate on Saturday. The next cold front will push off the TX coast on Monday night or Tuesday, and then stall in the far NW Gulf into the middle of next week. CARIBBEAN SEA... A stationary front cuts across Cuba near 22N81W, to 20N86W, curving to 17N87W. A 1013 mb low pressure center is about 100 nm to the east of the endpoint of the stationary front, near 17N87W. Precipitation: rainshowers are possible from 15N northward from 80W westward. Comparatively drier air in subsidence in water vapor imagery spans the entire Caribbean Sea. The current stationary front will remain in the area on Saturday. The front will dissipate on Saturday night. High pressure will be rebuilding to the north of the area in the wake of the front. The wind speeds will be pulsing to gale-force off the coast of Colombia, mainly at night, starting late Saturday into Wednesday night. ATLANTIC OCEAN... Upper level SW wind flow moves from the Gulf of Mexico, across Florida, into the western part of the Atlantic Ocean, to the west of the line that passes through 32N58W to the central Bahamas. A cold front passes through 32N69W, to 30N71W, across the NW Bahamas and the southern part of Andros Island, to the coast of Cuba near 23N80W. Broken to overcast high level clouds are streaming northeastward, from the SE Gulf of Mexico, through the Straits of Florida and across South Florida, into the Atlantic Ocean that is between 70W and 80W. Precipitation: isolated moderate to the west of the line that passes through Bermuda to the coast of Cuba near 23N78W, including in parts of the Straits of Florida. An upper level trough extends from an upper level cyclonic circulation center that is in western Algeria, to 27N20W, to 25N36W, to an 18N51W cyclonic circulation center, to 14N57W just to the east of the eastern Caribbean Sea islands. No significant deep convective precipitation is apparent in satellite imagery. High pressure, that is centered to the W of the Azores, will continue to keep a ridge extending S of Bermuda through the weekend. The current cold front will stretch from Bermuda into the SE Bahamas by Saturday morning. The front will become stationary into central Cuba. The front will stall on Saturday night and Sunday, and then dissipate early next week. Strong SW winds ahead of the front, and W to NW winds behind the front, all N of about 29N, will diminish to fresh by late tonight. $$ MT