000 AXNT20 KNHC 071137 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 637 AM EST Fri Feb 7 2020 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1120 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... ...GULF OF MEXICO GALE WARNING... A cold front is pushing across the southeast Gulf of Mexico, from SW Florida to the northern Yucatan. Gales have developed ahead of this front, with scatterometer showing southeasterly gale force winds from 28N- 29N between 83W- 85W. Seas will range from 12 to 16 ft. Westerly gale force winds are noted behind the front from 28N- 30N between 87W- 88W. These gales will end by 07/1200 UTC. ...ATLANTIC OCEAN GALE WARNING... A cold front is currently moving across the western Atlantic. Southerly gale force winds have developed ahead of the front from 28N-31N between 77W- 80W. As the front pushes farther in the basin, gale force force winds will continue on both sides of the front from 28N-31N between 72W-80W. Seas will range from 10 to 16 ft. This is expected to last through until 08/0000 UTC. Please read the latest High Seas Forecast issued by the National Hurricane Center under AWIPS/WMO headers MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC, or at website https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml for further details on the three special features listed below. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough extends from the coast of Liberia near 05N09W to 04N15W to 00N19W. The ITCZ continues from 00N19W to 02S28W to the coast of Brazil near 05S38W. Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms are noted from 03S-06N between 15W-24W. GULF OF MEXICO... As of 07/0900 UTC, the cold front enters the eastern Gulf off the SW Florida coast near 26N82W to the northern Yucatan near 22N88W. Scattered moderate convection is along the front from 24N-26N between 81W-84W. High pressure is building across the western Gulf, anchored by a 1014 mb high near 26N96W. The latest scatterometer data depicts southeasterly gale force winds from 28N-31N between 77W-80W. Fresh to strong southerly winds are seen across the SE Gulf ahead of the front. Westerly gale force winds are noted from 28N- 30N between 87W-88W. Elsewhere, strong to near gale-force winds are noted across the NW Gulf eastward to the cold front. Moderate winds are seen near the high. Seas are currently ranging between 12 to 15 ft near the westerly gale force winds. Elsewhere, seas range 6 to 8 ft across the central and western Gulf. The cold front will move southeast of the Gulf by this afternoon. W gales are occurring behind the front in the N Gulf, diminishing by this afternoon. By Fri night, conditions across the Gulf will quickly improve with relatively tranquil winds and seas through Tue. The next cold front may reach the NW Gulf late on Tue. CARIBBEAN SEA... High pressure continues to dominate the Caribbean and inhibit deep convection. However, showers are moving across the Greater and Lesser Antilles. A 1008 mb low is analyzed in the Gulf of Honduras near 17N87W with a trough extending along the low from 16N87W to 21N86W. The latest scatterometer data and surface observations show strong trades north of Colombia and in the Gulf of Venezuela. Strong to near gale force southerly winds are off the eastern coast of Honduras, with strong southerly winds between Honduras and western Cuba. Moderate to fresh trades are seen in the eastern Caribbean with gentle winds in the SW basin and the Gulf of Honduras. Seas are ranging from 3 to 6 ft, with seas up to 9 ft north of Colombia. A cold front will reach the NW Caribbean later today, become stationary from central Cuba to Yucatan by Sat afternoon, and dissipate on Sun. As the Bermuda High rebuilds north of the area in the wake of the front, this will support winds to gale force off Colombia, mainly at night, starting late Sat through Tue. ATLANTIC OCEAN... As of 07/0900 UTC, a cold front enters the western Atlantic from 30N78W to the coast of Florida near 28N80W. A line of thunderstorms is along the cold front N of 29N, otherwise scattered moderate convection is seen from 26N-31N between 76W- 80W. A mb broad ridge is anchored by a 1028 mb near 29N51W and a 1027 mb near 30N38W and remains in control across most of the Atlantic. The latest scatterometer data depicts strong to near-gale force winds N of 27N and W of 73W. Seas are ranging from 12 to 15 ft in the western Atlantic. Under the high, seas are 4 to 6 ft. The Bermuda-Azores High has a ridge axis that extends just south of the Bahamas. A strong pressure gradient from the high to an extratropical low over the SE United States will be producing S to SW gales in the N waters this morning. As a cold front emerges off of the Florida coast, W gales will occur behind the front in the afternoon. The cold front will reach from near Bermuda to central Cuba by Sat afternoon, become stationary in the same vicinity by Sun afternoon, and dissipate on Mon. $$ AKR